Stat of the Day, 20th December 2013
We backed Yasir at a very healthy 11/4 yesterday and it was looking a very good bet as he was sent off the 6/4 favourite having briefly dipped as low as 5/4. Unfortunately that was as good as it got for us despite the horse finishing third.
The bare result of a length and a neck defeat doesn’t tell the whole story, really. The horse seemed reluctant and didn’t travel well at all and had to be cajoled for much of the race by Hayley Turner. That said, she took every turn very wide and lost far more than the eventual margin of defeat in doing so.
All told, she did well to keep the horse involved, but she ran too far. I don’t whether to praise her or criticise her, so I’ll do neither and just put a zero in the column again.
Before I move on to today’s selection, I wanted to point out that Mishrif in the 12.10 Southwell today (taking on ex-Geegeez horse Khajaaly) fits those exact stats as Yasir from yesterday and was considered for selection, but 15/8 is a little skinny for SotD.
We’re off chasing in Staffordshire today for the…
Where I’m backing Richard Lee’s Russe Blanc at 7/2 BOG.
Richard Lee’s horses tend to run into form at this time of year and since the 1st December 2008, his record in the month of December reads 18 winners from 84 (21.4% SR) for 100.8pts (+120% ROI) profits at all odds. The record for fancied horses (ie 4/1 or under) is 9/19 (47.4%) for 21.4pts (+112.6% ROI).
From the original sample of 84 runners above: the record in chases reads 12/56 (21.4%) for 62.13pts (+111% ROI) with a 6/15 (40% SR) for 13.1pts (+87.3% ROI) return from chasers at 4/1 or under.
Richard has also been successful here at Uttoxeter this year with two of his four runners being returned as winners, including today’s selection who won over course and distance last time out, just over three weeks ago.
Uttoxeter is also one of those courses that serves former course and distance winners well. Any runner coming to Uttoxeter on the back of a win last time out and bearing the CD annotation on the racecard, should be considered as a bet. That’s because 16 out of 63 (25.4% SR) of them have gone on to win, recording level stakes profits of 27.94pts (+44.35% ROI) in the process.
15 of those 16 winners came from the 50 horses priced at 7/1 or under, giving a nice 30% strike rate from the odds filter. As you’d expect, profits are lower from shorter-priced horses, but 13.61pts still represents a very healthy ROI of 27.22%.
Russe Blanc did indeed win last time out and is also a course and distance winner. In fact he won LTO over C&D! He beat the re-opposing Hollins more comfortably than the winning margin of 1.5 lengths would suggest. he seemed to have something in reserve, whilst the runner-up couldn’t quicken.
Our selection won’t have it all his own way though and that’s probably why he’s currently almost double his 2/1 price tag from that last run. Ratify will want to challenge, but he’s up 15lbs for a win from which the form isn’t panning out. Stormhoek has been off the track for over 16 months, so will probably need the run, whilst Hollins (see above!) generally finds one too good for him: it was Russe Blanc last time out and I expect that to be the case again today.
Our horse has won on both soft and heavy ground so conditions underfoot should suit him here and all things considered, I think there’s some value in a 1pt win bet on Russe Blanc at 7/2 BOG. The price is fairly widely available and I’m going with Seanie Mac, the generous sponsors of our Boxing Day competition, but you can choose your favourite bookie very easily if you…
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Here is today’s racecard!
P.S. I’m now taking a couple of days off for a long weekend and I’ll be back with you for Boxing Day. Matt will, of course, look after you in my absence and I’d like to wish you all a very Happy Christmas.
All the best,