Stat of the Day, 27th December 2013
Tukitinyasok just failed in his bid to land yesterday’s race, after taking the lead with 2 furlongs to go. He didn’t have the necessary late pace to hold off a couple of unlikely sorts (16/1 & 25/1), but did still hold it together enough to hold on to third place.
He was eventually beaten by a neck and two lengths, but we’d got on at 8/1 E/W, making another small 0.5pts profit on the day. Mind you, 0.5pts per day would do us nicely!
Today we’re tackling the…
Where I’ve backed Utopie des Bordes at 9/2 BOG with Seanie Mac and here’s why…
December is usually a good month for Nicky Henderson in handicap contests: since the start of 2009, he has had 18 winners from the 100 runners priced between 5/2 and 12/1. That’s a very healthy 18% strike rate for an impressive 30.81pts profit. That stat alone means it’s worth backing all his December handicappers in that price bracket.
As it’s the busy Christmas period, Nicky will have several runners on show, but we should focus on Kempton, where he has an overall strike rate of 19.72% (14/71) in the last two years. These winners have produced 69.27pts (+97.6% ROI) in the two years in question.
I’ve sided with Utopie des Bordes, because it’s Nico de Boinville’s only ride of the day and he has an impressive record when on board the Henderson runners, especially when utilising his 5lb claim.
In the last two years their record together is 11/41 (26.8%) for 19.34pts (+47.2% ROI), with all 11 winners coming from the 26 runners priced at 11/1 or under: a strike rate of 42.3% generating 34.34pts (+132.1% ROI) profit.
From the original 41 runners, Mr de Boinville has claimed 5lbs on 23 occasions, winning 8 (34.8%) times for a return of 20.31pts (+88.3% ROI), with a record of 7/16 on horses priced between evens and 8/1. That 7/16 record equates to a 43.75% SR for 25.98pts (+162.4% ROI) profit.
Utopie des Bordes will get today’s trip and the ground, as she’s a record of 152 in races of 3 miles and over on soft or heavy ground. The win was in a listed contest a Sandown in February, whilst Gevrey Chambertin only beat her by half a length in a sapping Grade 3 event at Haydock two starts ago (23rd Nov).
This race, although competitive, is a drop in standard compared to the rivals she has been facing of late and if it becomes a test of stamina, she’s sure to be there or thereabouts and the current odds look attractive.
As I said earlier, I’ve backed Utopie des Bordes at 9/2 BOG with Seanie Mac. This price is, however, pretty widely available, so why not take the opportunity to…