Double Dutch, 28th December 2013
No 5-timer yesterday as our festive winning run finally came to an end. The day started well enough with a 1-2 finish and a 9/1 forecast as Baile Anrai just got up ahead of the visibly tiring Christopher Wren, who had looked like landing us a nice 4/1 winner to begin proceedings.
The second race was a let down, though, as Majala fell three from home, but was already looking beaten and this left King of the Wolds in 2nd place, a position he was unable to improve, finishing a good 11 lengths behind the easy winner.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Baile Anrai: won at 5/2 adv (SP 15/8)
Christopher Wren: 2nd at 4/1 BOG
(The forecast paid 10.03)
King of the Wolds: 2nd at 11/4 adv (SP 13/8)
Majala: fell at 5/2 adv (SP 9/4)
Results to date:
98 winning selections from 340 = 28.82%
30 winning doubles in 92 days = 32.61%
P/L : +8.55pts (+4.49% ROI)
My personal target is a 1-in-3 strike rate for these doubles, so a winner from these today will even that out:
I expect this to develop into a two-horse race between the 7/4 favourite Twice Lucky and the 5/2 shot Allanard. Twice Lucky ran well in defeat last time out, finishing second at Newcastle when stepping up half a mile in trip. Finishing three miles that day will help him here and the fact he’s only carrying 10st 1lb less a 5lb jockey claim could be decisive here in what looks to be a severe stamina test for the five runners.
Allanard is proven to get both trip and conditions and looks reasonably treated if running to anything like his best form. He looked more like his old self two starts ago, when second at Hexham, but did flop at Wetherby last time out. It is hoped/expected that the fitting of blinkers will help today and he’s probably the best alternative to the favourite in what looks to be a dour affair.
Only five go here too (too much racing at this time of year and not enough decent horses to go round, in my opinion anyway!) and yet again I can’t see this one not going to one of the two market leaders. So much so, that I’ve already backed the forecasts at 15/8 BOG with Bet365, but the official play will be the two singles.
My marginal preference is the Henderson/McCoy partnership with Stand To Reason, who was a useful runner on the Flat before changing hands for over £100,000. He won with plenty to spare on his hurdling debut and looks well set to go in again at 5/4 for a yard that has won this race on six of the last seven renewals.
Wilde Blue Yonder is, however, a real big danger to the selection and it’s only because his win LTO wasn’t as impressive that I make him my second choice. He won a soft ground bumper at Uttoxeter, before landing a hurdles event at the first time of asking over course and distance here and if this race becomes a bit of a battle up front, he may well prevail at odds of up to 11/8 (BetVictor).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Twice Lucky / Stand To Reason @ 5.19/1 (Coral 7/4 & 5/4)
Twice Lucky / Wilde Blue Yonder @ 5.19/1 (Coral 7/4 & 5/4)
Allanard / Stand To Reason @ 7.25/1 (Stan James 11/4 & 6/5)
Allanard / Wilde Blue Yonder @ 7.32/1 (BetVictor 5/2 & 11/8)
P.S. If you want to do the forecast in race 2, the Bet365 double is 9.08/1 using Allanard and 5.84/1 with Twice Lucky.