Stat of the Day, 28th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2013

Utopie des Bordes showed she had the stamina to get over 3 miles on soft/heavy ground yesterday, but she lacked the necessary pace late on to keep up with the leaders and had to eventually settle for 4th place.

She was sent off at 3/1, a good deal shorter than outr advised 9/2 odds, so we did at least beat the market. All well and good for the traders amongst, but for most of us, it’s a 1pt loss.

A loss I aim to recoup in the…

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12.55 Catterick:

With Donald McCain’s recruit to hurdling, Zip Wire….

Mr McCain’s horses are in a rich vein of form at the moment with an almost 1-in-4 strike rate over the last two months and more tellingly: 11 winners from 34 (32.4% SR) in the last fortnight forming part of a 50% place strike rate.

He has a good recent record here at Catterick with 13 winners from his 38 runners priced at an SP of 6/1 or under during the last two years. That’s a strike rate of 34.2% responsible for a profit of just under 11pts or 28.7% of stakes. His last eight such runners here have finished 11113112.

Zip Wire will be ridden by Jason Maguire today, so he’s in good hands under a jockey who is already 4/8 at this track this month.

Today is Zip Wire‘s first outing for the McCain yard, having been recruited from Irish Flat racing, but I would let that put you off. In the last three years, Donald McCain has given 145 horses, aged 4 to 6, their NH debut on their first outing for the yard. The results are pretty impressive too.

37 of the 145 have won (25.5% SR) for a level stakes profit of 49.2pts, and ROI of 33.9% and you can be sure this horse will have been prepared properly for this run.

As for the horse himself, he didn’t actually win any of his seven outings on the flat, but made the frame in 5 of his last 6 races and looked a better horse the further he went and the softer the ground was. In fact, his best effort was probably his last start for Edward Lynam. He made a slow start that day and was a good distance behind the leaders but stayed on strongly to finish third over 1m5f on soft ground.

He managed to make up enough ground in the latter stages to get within 3 lengths of the winner, Quick Jack, who has since made a winning switch to hurdling, landing a Class 3 handicap on his jumping debut at Cheltenham six weeks ago.

I don’t think the ground will trouble him unduly and I’d expect the team to have him ready, therefore I think there’s a decent chance he can get up on debut here today. So, it’s a 1pt win bet on Zip Wire, who trades as low as 11/4 in places, but there’s still plenty of 7/2 BOG on offer too. I’m on with Bet365, but to see who else is offering the same price…

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