Stat of the Day, 29th December 2013
Zip Wire ran well enough for a first crack at hurdling, but the extra three furlongs eventually took its toll. He wasn’t able to keep up with the leaders and eventually came home fourth, some 12 lengths off the pace.
The bright spots came from beating the bookies again (9/4 SP from our 7/2 advice) and we’ve just seen a horse that will come on for this run. He may well have been beaten, but he stayed the trip and his jumping was sound enough on debut.
Three opportunities remain this year, starting with the…
Where the selection will be Granaruid, who aims to follow-up his 25/1 win at Carlisle from four weeks ago…
In the last 11 years, it has been profitable to blanket back any horse that was a winner at 25/1 or over last time out and then ran at odds of between 5/2 and 8/1 when running at either the same class or stepping up 1 grade. The profits aren’t huge, but with 9 winning years from 11, it’s a good starting point.
In fact, there has been 217 winners from 1199 such runners, an overall strike rate of 18.1% producing level stakes profits of 232.85pts, or 19.42% of stakes.
In we look at more recent results over hurdles, we see a fairly similar pattern, which is always reassuring. Since the start of 2010, 19 winners and 21.72pts profit from 100 runners represents a small improvement on the initial raw data.
As you’re probably all aware by now, I do like to back LTO winners, if they fit into certain criteria I use. In the past I’ve talked about my “back to form” horses ie those winning after at least three unplaced efforts, then turned out within 30 days of a win.
With a 12/1 odds cap on the qualifying hurdlers, this microsystem has had 59 winners from 203 this year alone: a very healthy 29.1% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 83.52pts, an ROI of 41.14%.
With a form line of 215551 in his last six outings and with a 25/1 win last time out, Granaruid fulfils both sets of stats and is therefore considered worthy of selection today.
Neither the trip nor the soggy conditions should be an issue today and he’s got the benefit of a 5lb claimer on board who is 1/1 when riding this horse.
The current odds for this competitive race are long enough for a safety-first approach, so it’s a 0.5pts E/W bet on Granaruid for me. I’ve taken 17/2 BOG with BetInternet, but the best advice is to…