Double Dutch, 30th December 2013
Little/no surprises yesterday, as both first picks won fairly comfortably at Leopardstown.
I was very happy to get 5/4 about “the Fly”, whilst a slight easing of the odds (13/8 to 7/4) of the winner of the last race meant we helped ourselves to a 5.19/1 double on the day.
A net profit of 1.09pts might not seem much, but we really should put it into context.
It was a near 55% return on our daily stakes and came from backing two fairly safe winners, with the added bonus of a couple of standby picks.
In fact, I’d be more than happy to make a 1pt per day from these!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Hurricane Fly: won at 5/4 adv (SP 11/10)
Our Conor: 3rd at 3/1 BOG (adv 5/2)
Value At Risk: won at 7/4 BOG (adv 13/8)
Yes Sir Brian: 4th of 5
Results to date:
101 winning selections from 348 = 29.02%
31 winning doubles in 94 days = 32.98%
P/L : +7.64pts (+4.11% ROI)
A couple of Class 3 chases to consider today:
I really can’t see No Secrets not failing to win this, providing he gets round unscathed. He was impressive in back-to-back wins last winter, including this race last time around. He’s 3/4 on soft/heavy ground and stays further than this trip. He ran well enough to finish 4th on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury a month ago, but conditions will be more to his liking here, making him a good bet at 13/8 BOG with BetVictor
As the backup horse, I could pick any one of his five rivals, except the outsider Firebird Flyer, who looks out of his depth here (tempting fate?). Of the four hopefuls, I’d probably go with Theatrical Star, who at 6/1 BOG (Stan James) looks to at least offer some value to opposing the favourite.
Theatrical Star has won once and made the frame on five other occasions from his eight starts on ground described as soft or heavy and he has won at 2m 6f, a little shorter than today, but does have some creditable form at 3 miles and beyond, suggesting that stamina shouldn’t be an issue. His jumping has been sketchy in the past, but that is, I suppose, reflected in his price.
At a best price of 6/4 (Seanie Mac), Bobcatbilly is expected to be the one to beat here. A winner at Ludlow over this trip 26 days ago who was then third at the same track and trip a fortnight later when attempting to defy an 8lb penalty. He’s clearly in good heart and only went down by less than a length and a half. AP McCoy takes the ride today and it is hoped/expected that he might just be able to get a little bit more out of this one today, as he tends to!
As an alternative, I’m going to take a punt at Saint and Sinners, who looks (to me, at least!) overpriced at 8/1 BOG (Ladbrokes). He likes the cut in the ground and is a winner at a trip just a furlong less than today’s race. He’s reunited with Jake Greenall today, who has not only been on board for both the horse’s victories to date, is also able to take three valuable pounds off his back. He’s a tentative Plan B, but at odds difficult to ignore!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
No Secrets / Bobcatbilly @ 21/4 (Seanie Mac, Boylesports 6/4 & 6/4)
No Secrets / Saint and Sinners @ 43/2 (Ladbrokes 6/4 & 8/1)
Theatrical Star / Bobcatbilly @ 59/4 (Stan James 5/4 & 6/1)
Theatrical Star / Saint and Sinners @ 103/2 (Stan James 6/1 & 13/2)