Stat of the Day, 30th December 2013
Nobody wanted to back Granaruid yesterday, as he drifted out to an SP of 12/1 from our advised 17/2 and the lack of market support as fully justified, I’m afraid.
He didn’t travel at all well and had to be coaxed along from about the halfway point. He eventually came home 10th of the 11th runners, a good 35 lengths behind the winner and it is to jockey Conor Shoemark’s credit that he got him to complete at all.
Back to the sand today for the…
Which is a 10-furlong, Class 6 handicap, where I’ve backed Royal Etiquette, the current 7/2 favourite.
I’m no great fan of backing favourites, as it’s generally unprofitable, but on average, 1 in 3 of them win and it’s just a case of backing the right ones!
Favourites/joint favourites in Class 6 handicaps at Lingfield have proved to be worth following over the last four years, providing they meet certain criteria. If they are males aged from 3 to 7 inclusive and are top rated (or within 1lb of top) and ran in a Class 6 handicap last time out (irrespective of where they finished!), then they are to be backed.
Since the start of 2010, all such horses priced at 13/8 or over (I don’t like to go any lower than that for SotD!), they are 38/111, a strike rate of 34.2% for level stakes profits of 52.03pts, a return above stakes of some 46.9%.
If we applied a minimum price of 5/2, the figures look even better at 25/76 (32.9% SR) for 47.75pts profit, or 62.8% of stakes. The numbers for this year alone are 6/18 for 13.2pts: not bad at all for backing favourites!
Royal Etiquette may well go off lower than the advised 7/2, as he has now slipped down to a very workable mark of 55. He has won off 61 and 62 in the past and was running off a mark of 64 earlier this year, when beaten in a similar course and distance contest. He was only beaten by a length and three-quarters that day and any run approaching that kind of form would be enough to take a poor-looking contest here today.
The booking of the in-form Adam Kirby is interesting today, Adam’s been having a great winter and rode four winners from seven at this very track two days ago. If anyone can get the best out of this horse dropping into 0-55 class for the first time, Adam’s got to be the man for that job.
I’m happy enough with both the chances and the price of Royal Etiquette to place my 1pt win bet at 7/2 BOG. I’ve used Hills this morning, but that price is available in several other places. To find out where, simply…