Stat of the Day, 1st January 2014
A Happy New Year to one and all as we enter 2014 in the hope we’ll be able to provide you with a third consecutive year of profits here at SotD.
We closed out the old year in style as the 11 yr old veteran Luke’s Benefit won the same race for the third year on the bounce. We advised a 1pt win bet at 4/1 and he was good value for the win, landing the spoils at an SP of 7/2.
He was kept handy throughout and once he took the lead 3 flights from home, there was only going to be one winner. He kicked on and stayed on to finish over six lengths ahead of his nearest rival.
I’m looking for more of the same to kick the month off, courtesy of a selection in the…
It’s not often you can find an angle to blindly back horses from the likes of Willie Mullins’ yard and still return a profit. However, in the last two years, if you’d backed all his runners in Irish NH races on heavy ground, you’d have backed 115 winners from 315 bets. That’s a decent strike rate of some 36.5% producing level stakes profits of 57.47pts or 18.24% of stakes.
That’s a good enough return for blind backing, but from those figures, we can derive the following:
Odds between Evens & 12/1: 61/209 (29.2% SR) for 63.3pts (+29.5% ROI)
Runners at Tramore: 7/14 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+93.8% ROI)
All of the winners at Tramore have been sent off at odds of 7/1 or under: ideal for SotD purposes.
Mr Mullins has just two runners today at Tramore and both contest this 2m5f Listed Chase and our selection is the apparent yard first string: Marito.
Marito will love this ground today, as she’s currently on two wins and three places from his five starts on any ground worse than Soft and comes here on the back of a very creditable performance in defeat in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last time out, where she was only 1.25 lengths behind Hurricane Fly.
That was her first run for seven months and will have served as a good pipe-opener for her return to the larger obstacles, where she acquitted herself well last season.
She won both of her first two efforts over fences, before going down by less than length in a Grade 2 contest over today’s trip on heavy ground at Leopardstown last January. from there she went to the Cheltenham Festival and was travelling strongly with a view to at least a place at 14/1, before falling 2 from home.
The trip and conditions are set perfect for her and if can run to anything like last season’s level, she’s certainly worth a look. Unfortunately her price has been cut as I’ve been typing, due to the withdrawal of the 5/1 third favourite, but I’m still backing Marito at 9/4 BOG with Betfred. To see what the other bookies are offering, simply…