Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2014
9/4 is generally towards the bottom end of the price range for any of my SotD selections, but Marito showed yesterday that there can still be some value towards the sharp end of the market.
She was advised at 9/4 yesterday and was pretty comfortable in scoring by 3.25 lengths at an SP of 13/8, giving BOG backers an extra £5.00 profit per £8.00 wagered. I can’t afford to leave money on the table, can you?
More heavy ground in store today as we head towards the…
Oliver Sherwood has got his horses running really well at present with a string of results reading 11311211403 since Christmas, six winners, three placers and a fourth (of 11) from his eleven runners and this comes as no surprise to me, as he tends to do well when the going gets tough.
Six of those post-Xmas runners have had to endure heavy ground, but results of 113113 make good reading indeed.
In fact, in the last three years, Oliver has had 13 winners from 40 on heavy ground (32.5% SR) for 28.2pts ptofit, an ROI of 70.5%. There was a double-digit odds winner in there, though, so it might be more prudent to examine his figures at lower odds, where we tend to play for SotD.
With an 8/1 odds cap: 12/33 = 36.4% SR for 18pts profit (ROI = 54.5%)
With an 11/2 odds cap: 11/26 = 42.3% SR for 15.4pts profit (ROI = 59.2%)
All of which is encouraging for today’s selection Arkose, who currently trades at the 3/1 mark.
Arkose stays all day and 3m2f here on heavy ground should be no issue for this 10 yr old warrior who was second over 3m 6.5f on soft ground here at Huntingdon last time out. He also gets to run off a mark two pounds lower than that run, now he’s switching back to hurdling for the first time since April.
He has won over hurdles at this trip and he’s also a former course winner who does enjoy the testing conditions. His ability to stay an extra half mile could be a vital factor here today.
I’ve no fears about the trip or the going today, my only slight concern is that he’ll need to adjust quickly to hurdling again, but I’d expect the Sherwood team to have him primed for this and they’ll have spent the last six weeks prepping him for it.
Arkose is widely available at 3/1 BOG, but I’m going to gamble on him shortening today, by placing a 1pt win bet at 7/2 (non-BOG) with SportingBet. Those of you who prefer the safety/security of the BOG option (and who could blame you?), then you’ll need to…