Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2014
Arkose failed to land the spoils for us on Thursday afternoon, I’m afraid. He was headed after a mistake 2 from home and didn’t really get going again enough to make a late challenge.
The final result was a 4th placed finish at 4/1, longer than I’d anticipated if I’m honest.
I’m avoiding the damp turf for my next runner, which features in the…
Where I’ve got a stack of inter-related stats to back up the selection of Pick A Little, who was an 11/4 shot on Thursday evening when I wrote this piece!
1. Top weighted males aged 4-6 running in Classes 5-7 on the All-Weather in races for 4yr olds and above only. In the last three years, such horses who won last time out and are priced between 13/8 and 8/1 in the follow-up race, went on to win 40 of 138 races. A strike rate of 29% generating profits of 73.75pts, an ROI of over 53%.
Of the 138 runners, the record at Southwell was 11/27 (40.74% SR) for 32.05pts (+118.7% ROI) profit.
2. Top-weighted males in all-weather, class 5 to 7, 4yo+ handicaps whose previous race was within the last three weeks (but not one day ago!) and they either won or finished in the first home within a length of the winner also perform well next time out. In the same 2011/13 timeframe as above, these males when priced at 6/1 or under have won 83 out of 270 races (30.74% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.93pts (+22.57% ROI).
When applied to races here at Southwell only, the figures read 25 winners from 55 (45.45% SR) for 30.61pts (+55.65% ROI).
3. Last year, horses that ran on the all-weather within 30 days of a win which came after at least three consecutive unplaced efforts fared very well indeed. When turned back out at an SP of 6/1 or under, they were successful in doubling up 29.9% of the time. This comes via a record of 58 winners from 194 and generated level stakes profits of 69.22pts, a 35.7% increase on stakes.
4. Top rated (official BHA ratings) 6 yr old males running in class 5 or 6 races on the all-weather at the same class or dropping a grade from the last handicap outing have a strike rate of 18.6% in the last three years (20.6% last year). This is derived from 77 winners from 414 runners for 162.98pts (+39.4% ROI) profit. Last year’s figures were 28/136 for 76.81pts (+56.5% ROI).
The three-year figures for Southwell are 16/67 (23.9% SR) for 32.33pts (+48.25% ROI) with 2013 producing 6 winners from 20 for 22.37pts profit.
All of the above criteria fit for Pick A Little here today and as one of only two runners in the race to have tasted success in their last seven races added to the rebooking of Robert Tart to ride, I’m happy to back this one.
So, it’s a 1pt win bet on Pick A Little at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power for me, but I did write this just before 6.30pm on Thursday evening, so you might want to…