Double Dutch, 3rd January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd January 2014

Two winners got us back on track yesterday, but the returns were unspectacular. A Rule 4 deduction reduced our first winner down to 11/10. Mind you, the SP was 4/6, so we beat the market handsomely on that one.

There was a slight drift in the second race as our two against the field flipped favouritism and our first pick was victorious at 11/8, whilst forecasters also made a small profit.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Swatow Typhoon: won at 11/10 adv (after a R4!) (SP 4/6)
Milborough: fell
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Carole’s Destrier: won at 11/8 BOG (adv 6/5)
Cloud Creeper: 2nd at 13/8 adv (SP 6/5)
(The Exacta paid £4.40)

Results to date:
108 winning selections from 364 = 29.67%
34 winning doubles in 98 days = 34.69%

Stakes: 194.00pts
Returns: 207.95pts

P/L : +13.95pts (+7.19% ROI)

Friday appears to be the worst day of racing I’ve seen for a while, but every race will have a winner! Hopefully, we’ll find two of them here:

2.30 Southwell:

On first inspection last night, I assumed this to be a fairly close-run affair between four horses and as such discarded the contest from consideration for the doubles. Two of the four main protagonists have now, however, been withdrawn leaving me with two to follow.

The obvious starting point is Luv U Whatever, whose trainer has a good record att this track and the horse itself is 1121 on its last four outings here. He won well last time out (at Wolverhampton) to take his A/W record to four wins and a second from just six runs and looks the likeliest winner now at 2/1 BOG.

The main danger is expected to come from Honoured who can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG. This 7yr old also has a good record at this track with finishes of 23112 over the last 14 months or so.. He was only beaten by a neck on that last outing and trainer Michael Appleby’s horses are going really well of late.

*
3.10 Musselburgh:

Another of those four-runner races, where I can only see one of two winning!

Of the two at the head of the market, Kris Cross looks most likely for me. He was rerouted here rather than competing at Ayr yesterday and this looks a better opportunity for him to win again. 3 miles on soft ground is no problem for this one, he has won over 3m 3f in the paast and was third over 3m 2f on soft ground two starts ago, before winning at Ascot over today’s trip six weeks ago. Taking his jockey’s allowancve into consideration, he’s getting weight all round and will probably go off shorter than his current odds of 11/8 BOG with Stan James.

I’d expoect Lively Baron to be his main rival for today’s £7800 top prize. This 9 yr old is an out and out stayer, but has a good record at this kind of trip too. He has run six times over 3m 0.5 furlongs with finishes of 211332 and he looks a danger at 5/2 BOG dropping back in trip. He jumps well and provided they don’t go off too quickly for him, he’ll not be found out for stamina today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Luv U Whatever / Kris Cross @ 6.125 (Stan James 2/1 & 11/8)
Luv U Whatever / Lively Baron @ 19/2 (Paddy Power 2/1 & 5/2)
Honoured / Kris Cross @ 8.3125 (Stan James 5/2 & 11/8)
Honoured / Lively Baron @ 11.375 (5/2 & 9/4 generally)