Double Dutch, 4th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th January 2014

Yesterday started well with a 1-2 and a 4.8/1 exacta based on SP’s, as just 0.75 lengths separated our selections with their nearest rival a good 8 lengths away.

Unfortunately, we couldn’t find the winner in race 2, with Kris Cross’ 2nd place finish being the best we could manage, as a series of jumping errors contributed to a 3 lengths defeat.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Luv U Whatever: won at 2/1 adv (SP 6/4)
Honoured: 2nd at 5/2 adv (SP 2/1)
(The exacta paid £5.60 here)
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Kris Cross: 2nd at 11/8 adv (SP 11/8)
Lively Baron: last of 4!

Results to date:
109 winning selections from 368 = 29.62%
34 winning doubles in 99 days = 34.34%

Stakes: 196.00pts
Returns: 207.95pts

P/L : +11.95pts (+6.10% ROI)

The racing programme has been decimated today, so I’m going to tackle the first two events at Newcastle:

12.00 Newcastle:

Malcolm Jefferson’s horses tend to go well in the mud and Retrieve The Stick was a very easy (19l) winner at Kelso last Sunday. Not only did she handle the soft ground superbly, she wasn’t over exerted and should be able to give it her all just six days later. This is a step up in trip to 2.5miles, but she has run over 2m4f already in her short career and the manner of last week’s facile victory suggests she’s plenty in the tank, making her a likely winner here at 13/8 BOG with Stan James

Her biggest threat is likely to be The Flaming Matron, who sets the standard on form here. The two mile trip was too short for her here last month, as she’s a winner on soft ground at 2m 6f in the past (at Cartmel) and she’s expected to relish both the conditions here and the step back up in trip. If it becomes an attritional affair, this one has bags of stamina and may well be the one to outstay the favourite. She can currently be backed at 2/1 BOG.

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12.35 Newcastle:

Dancing Art is 35211 here at Newcastle and was only beaten by a short head on his only attempt over course and distance. He was entitled to fade at Uttoxeter last time out: it was at a trip 6f longer than today and it was his first run for over 7 months! He was in excellent form last winter and anything like a repeat performance of last year’s exploits should see him returned as a 15/8 winner here today.

Of the three other runners here, cases can be made both for and against all of them, but Rupert Bear (everyone knows his name! :D) is of interest to me.

He was 5th in a similar race to this just over three weeks ago over this course and distance, but that was on good ground. Just two chase starts to date, but his best hurdling form came heavy ground, like he’ll encounter today. He had seven runs over 2m1f on heavy ground and was a winner on three occasions, whilst making the frame in two other races (13114P2).

His jumping has been sound in both in his chase starts to date, he’s just been outpaced on good ground. With boggy conditions underfoot, his liking for the mud could help him prevail at odds of 9/4 BOG today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Retrieve The Stick / Dancing Art @ 6.22/1 (Stan James 13/8 & 7/4)
Retrieve The Stick / Rupert Bear @ 7.53/1 (Stan James 13/8 & 9/4)
The Flaming Matron / Dancing Art @ 7.63/1 (Hills 2/1 & 15/8)
The Flaming Matron / Rupert Bear @ 8.75/1 (Stan James, Ladbrokes, Coral 2/1 & 9/4 )