I’ve been reviewing the performance of my systems portfolio over the last week or so. I’ve around eighty (yes, EIGHTY) in my ‘incubator’, and as you’d expect some do better than others. From the unfortunately hopeless (just a couple I’m pleased to say) to the break even to the moderately profitable to the surprisingly lucrative.
The vast majority of them have been in ‘live test’ for a year or more and, as I’m on holiday by the time you read this, I thought I’d share one with you. In fact, as I write (2.10pm Sunday afternoon), it’s just slotted home the latest qualifier, Luke’s Benefit, at 10/3.
It’s a really simple system, but works pretty well, and I call it the National Hunt Quick Returners system.
Here are the rules…
Back any National Hunt horse in UK or Ireland that won last time out and is running again within five days of that win.
Here’s the logic behind it.
1. Won last time out – obviously fit and in form.
2. Running again within five days – is running before the handicapper has a chance to reassess the merit of the victory. Also, the trainer generally wouldn’t want to run the horse if it is still feeling the effects of that last race.
Surely that’s too simple? Well, sometimes the blindingly obvious can work well enough. I have a few systems in this category and they’re among my favourites.
What about the results? Below are the returns to SP, and to Betfair SP. (Thanks to horseracebase, where I track and store all my systems).
Note that while 2013 showed a negligible loss at starting price, taking Best Odds Guaranteed on all qualifiers would have returned a profit of around twenty points. The average profit, using BOG, is around 45 points per year, from roughly 120 bets per year. So, clearly not a retirement plan, but a lovely little portfolio system.
2014’s figures above don’t include Luke’s Benefit’s win on Sunday, so it’s in front at SP on the year. Clearly, though, with three early winners from five runners, a 60% strike rate is unsustainable. History suggests we should be prepared for something closer to one in three, maybe slightly better than that.
And that’s my National Hunt Quick Returners system, just one of 29 in a portfolio that I’m going to be backing from the beginning of February, when I’ve got everything set up. It’s only a ‘one star system’ (I have them ranked from 1 to 5), but I hope you like it!
I’m now on holiday until next Tuesday. Chris is in charge – top man! – so there will still be Stat of the Day and Double Dutch as usual, as well as The Shortlist. We’ve made good progress on the reports issue for Gold subscribers, and I hope we’ve resolved it. (For those techies amongst you, it was a theme contention involving jquerytools (used by flowplayer in this theme), and jQueryUI. Nope, it makes no sense to me either!)
Anyway, long and short is that the new reports are back in place for Gold subscribers, and they will hopefully not break anything else. If you do encounter an issue, please let us know so we can look into it. The more details the better.
And finally, if you’re a Gold trialist currently, I’ll be adding another of my systems portfolio into the Gold members’ area towards the end of this week. So look out for that. It will be posted here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/gold-members/
In the meantime, don’t forget to get your daily selections in for the Tipping League. Now working fine, thankfully.
Win a share of £240 in free bets in the geegeez Tipping League here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/tipping-league/