Stat of the Day, 5th January 2014
It was a washout at Wincanton yesterday after 15mm of overnight rain fell onto a track already set to be declared as heavy going!
So, no action for us there, but hopefully today’s race will go ahead as planned:
Where the call is a 1pt win bet on Beau Lake at 7/2 BOG.
Beau Lake is trained by Suzy Smith whose record in handicap hurdles over the last three years is worth noting. Since 7th January 2011 (when Jordan was 2nd at Fontwell), her record on these events is 18 winners from 93 runners: a strike rate of 19.35% yielding profits of 53.9pts, the equivalent of 57.96% of stakes invested.
23 of those 93 horses ran here at Plumpton, returning figures of 9/23 (39.13% SR) for 47.81pts (+207.9% ROI). There were, obviously, some decent priced winners in there, but even the runners priced at 8/1 or under are worth backing.
For 2011/13, her runners in Plumpton handicap hurdles sent off at 8/1 or under won 8 of 15 races (53.33% SR) for 36.26pts (+241.7% ROI) profit.
Beau Lake will be ridden by Gavin Sheehan today and he’s quite familiar with leading Miss Smith’s horses back to the winning enclosure after a race. Gavin has a strike rate of over 30% on board Suzy’s horses, courtesy of 7 wins from 23 for 44.39pts (+147.97% ROI) profit with their combined record at Plumpton being 3/9 for 26.52pts.
As for the horse himself: he has finished 11251 in his last five outings, he has 2 wins on soft ground and he’s 1 from 2 on heavy. His record over today’s two-mile trip is good with three wins and a place from eight efforts with a 2/4 record over this trip on heavy ground. He’s a dual course and distance winner (2/4 over C&D) and he’s 1/2 over track, trip and going.
The bottom line is that the trainer does well here, the jockey rides well for her and the horse goes well here and at this trip and on this ground. The fly in the ointment is the well-thought of favourite Edmaaj, but he has proven to be a disappointment so far since his switch from the Flat.
I think it’s the high expectations of that horse plus the booking of AP McCoy that have made him the 13/8 favourite here, but I see this as good news as it means we’ll get more bang for our buck with Beau Lake.
All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Beau Lake at 7/2 BOG. I’ve placed my bet with Hills, but that same price is also available at BetVictor. For all the other bookies’ odds…