Double Dutch, 6th January 2014
Back to winning ways yesterday with a 10.38/1 double on a Super Southwell Sunday!
Both of our winners were market drifters, but the beauty of only using BOG bookies for these bets meant that we got the full 10.28/1 payout from our original 6.32/1 advice.
You really MUST use the BOGglers!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Frontier Fighter: won at 9/4 BOG (adv 5/4)
Greyfriarschorista: 3rd at 2/1 SP (adv 9/4)
Captain Secret: won at 5/2 SP (adv 9/4)
Exceeding Power: last of 4!
Results to date:
112 winning selections from 376 = 29.79%
35 winning doubles in 101 days = 34.65%
P/L : +13.64pts (+6.82% ROI)
A combination of bad weather, heavy ground and non-runners coupled with it being a Monday and little decent racing to choose from has made today’s piece hard to write, but there are 21 races either side of the Irish Sea, surely we can find two with decent chances for us? 😀
We head straight back to Southwell for their opener, a 2 mile chase on heavy ground which I expect to become an attritional battle between Morestead and Decent Lord.
Both like the testing conditions: each of Morestead’s last three races have been on heavy ground and he has finished second each time. He hasn’t missed out by much, though with a total margin of defeat of just 2.5 lengths across the 3 races. He idled on the run in last time out and was nailed late on, so a drop back in trip should suit and you just know that the booking of AP McCoy means he’ll be ridden to a finish.
Morestead is my (very!) marginal preference and is currently available at 7/4 BOG with Stan James. Decent Lord is similarly priced and comes here with a record of two wins from five on heavy ground and hails from a yard with a very good record in such testing conditions. This is only Decent Lord’s fourth attempt over the larger obstacles and aside from unseating his rider at the first last time out, his jumping has been sound and he looks a creditable alternative at a generally available 7/4 BOG.
A change of scenery/code for our second race today, where Matraash attempts to land his fourth seller on the bounce. He generally comes late to win fairly narrowly over 10f and 12f, so it’ll be interesting to see if a drop to 8.5f is either more to his liking or a touch too sharp. Had this been a better quality contest, I wouldn’t go near him, but there are doubts over the rest of the field, which means the 13/8 BOG offered by Stan James might yet still be too long.
You can make cases for and against all five rivals here, but the one I like best is I Confess. 5/1 BOG with Coral looks fairly generous about a former Course & Distance winner, who has won 9 of his last 30 races and has a career total of 13 Polytrack wins. The downside? We have to take his fitness on trust, he hasn’t run for 433 days!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Decent Lord / Matraash @ 5.88/1 (Generally 7/4 & 6/4)
Morestead / Matraash @ 6.22/1 (Stan James 7/4 & 13/8)
Morestead / I Confess @ 15.25/1 (BetInternet 6/4 & 11/2)
Decent Lord / I Confess @ 16.06/1 (BetInternet 13/8 & 11/2)