Double Dutch, 7th January 2014
I did suggest that it would be tough going yesterday, but I didn’t foresee having as bad a day as I did. After a 2nd and a fourth in a six-horse race, I expected better in race two.
Yet, unbelievably my poor day (SotD was only fifth, too!) managed to get worse by only getting the last two home in a four-horse race. Sometimes, it’s just not your day!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Decent Lord: 2nd at 7/4 SP (adv 7/4)
Morestead: 4th at 5/2 SP (adv 7/4)
Matraash: 3rd of 4!
I Confess: last of 4!
Results to date:
112 winning selections from 380 = 29.47%
35 winning doubles in 102 days = 34.31%
P/L : +11.64pts (+5.76% ROI)
I’m not one for making excuses, but if yesterday’s racing wasn’t up to much: today’s looks awful. An A/W meeting and some heavy ground low quality fayre at Leicester are all we get to choose from. Let’s take one race from each venue, shall we?
Limon Squeezy ran well in defeat here nine days ago, when staying on to finish fourth in a 7f contest. I think the extra furlong added to that recent course experience will stand her in good stead and this looks a fairly weak race, if truth be told. That run here probably represents the best recent run of any of today’s competitors and as such she’s my pick at 5/2 BOG (PP).
Of the rest, I suppose it’s down to either Bubbly Bailey or Abbotsfield. Abbotsfield is rated the highest in this race at 65, but after a promising 2nd on debut at Newcastle, has been well beaten on both her starts since and is therefore overlooked today. Thus, the default alternate pick is Bubbly Bailey.
Bubbly Bailey has shown bits of form on the A/W in the past, making the frame in two of his three runs and if back to that level, could go close today. My main concern about this one is that he’s been off the track for 252 days, but at least he isn’t coming over overexposed. His lack of recent activity is reflected in his current 100/30 price at Stan James.
Kilflora got up to win at Market Rasen twelve days ago and needs respecting, but this 11 yr old tends not to win too often (just 4 from 37) and although he’ll make another bold bid, I’m going to leave him out in favour of Santo Thomas and Toowoomba.
Santo Thomas represents the in-form Venetia Williams and with the best jockey in the race, has to have a great chance here. This 8yr old grey likes this trip and relishes the soft conditions. he was 2nd on heavy ground at Ffos Las three weeks ago, but gets to run off the same mark here, making him a good bet at 2/1 BOG (generally).
However, if things go to plan, I’d expect Toowoomba to take the race. A winner in point to point races, he has some decent form in his two hurdles races to date, making the frame on both occasions. He now makes his handicap debut and with an allocated mark of 105, he looks to have been leniently treated. The Hobbs horses are running well of late and today could be a great opportunity for this one to break his duck at 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Limon Squeezy / Santo Thomas @ 9.50/1 (PP 5/2 & 2/1)
Limon Squeezy / Toowoomba @ 9.56/1 (generally 9/4 & 9/4)
Bubbly Bailey / Santo Thomas @ 11.46/1 (BetInternet 10/3 & 15/8)
Bubbly Bailey / Toowoomba @ 13.08/1 (Stan James 10/3 & 9/4)