Stat of the Day, 9th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2014

Namibian was expected to come on for his reappearance last month, but once again he quickly folded and dropped out of the race with four hurdles yet to come. It was a disappointing capitulation, if truth be told and a drop to the minimum 2m trip is probably his next port of call.

The only bright spot for us after he was pulled up at 6/1, was that once again, we beat the SP with our 8/1 advice. Scant consolation, I know, but beating the book is the long-term key to success.

Short term success would also be welcome, though, so we’re off to tackle the…

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1.50 Southwell:

Where jockey Mark Coumbe will aim to put his 3lb claim to good use aboard the Roy Bowring-trained Maakirr, who can be backed at 7/2 BOG with Coral…

1. When using his 3lb allowance on Roy Bowring’s horses priced in the Evens to 6/1 bracket, Mark Coumbe has ridden 12 winners from 30 with a further 8 horses making the frame. A 66.7% place strike rate is hugely impressive and the 40% win strike rate has yielded 34.8pts profit to date, a figure equivalent to 116% of stakes invested.

Maakirr comes here on the back of a narrow course and distance victory a week ago, where he prevailed by a nose in a Class 5 contest and now drops down a grade, but will now be top weighted (after any jockey claims) for his troubles…

2. Top weighted males running in Southwell, A/W, Class 5 or 6, 4 yo+ handicaps on the back of a run in the last 10 days when they either won or finished within a length of the winner in a race at the same grade or within one grade of today have won 40 times from 86 attempts since 2009. That 46.5% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 55.4pts, an ROI of 64.5%. I should, however, point out that those figures are based on ALL runners fitting that criteria.

If we were to be more odds-specific, the record with a 6/1 SP cap is still profitable to the tune of 39.05pts, which is a  48.8% ROI, based on a record of 38 winners from 80 (47.5% SR).

Maakirr is an offspring from the stallion Street Cry…

3. Street Cry’s progeny have a 12/31 record in handicap races here at Southwell in the last couple of years. That impressive 38.7% strike rate has given rise to excellent returns: 59.4pts profit = 191.5% over stakes. The record in the evens to 6/1 price band is 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 24.7pts (+107.4% ROI) with a 3/9 record at Class 6 for 10.55pts profit.

It’s a pretty competitive race here and I could probably have picked an easier one to try to get back amongst the winners, but based upon the above stats, I think there’s plenty of value in this selection today. Therefore, it’s a 1pt win bet on Maakirr at 7/2 BOG with Coral for me today.

I’m aware there are other bookies out there and for their best prices, you really should…

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