Double Dutch, 10th January 2014
Our slow creep back into some semblance of form continued apace yesterday with a nice (albeit Rule 4 decimated!) all-weather double.
I’d highlighted Groovejet as a horse screaming out for further and the extra 1.5f did the trick as she hit the front with over a furlong to go and quickly put the race to bed, winning by almost 3 lengths at a huge 6/1 whilst easing to the finish.
This set up us nicely for the evening race, where Pass The Time was a non-runner, leaving our hopes in the hands of Flash Crash, who didn’t disappoint at all. He tracked the leaders and outstayed the pack, winning pretty comfortably in the end.
The only blot on the horizon was the Rule 4 deduction, reducing our advised odds down to 49/40, but still not bad about a horse sent off at 5/6. We did, however, have the compensation of a 6/1 single from the second half of the double for a total profit of 9.29pts on the day, if you follow…
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Groovejet: won at 6/1 SP (adv 9/2)
Lesha: 4th of 5 at 2/1 SP (adv 11/4)
Flash Crash : won at 5/6 SP (adv 49/40 after R4)
Pass The Time : non-runner, WD at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
115 winning selections from 391 = 29.41%
36 winning doubles in 105 days = 34.29%
P/L : +16.93pts (+8.14% ROI)
More all-weather “fun” today with a trip to Surrey:
Just five of the original eight runners will now go to post for this one, as the 9 yr old Ocean Legend seeks to gain his 11th career win on the All-Weather. He’s 8 from 35 at this trip with a 101% ROI from level stakes bets. Although he does most of his running at Kempton, he has won here in the past and was only beaten by a nose over course and distance last time he came here.
Ocean Legend was second (beaten late on) in a better looking race than this last time out and with a 2lbs drop in rating allied to the booking of Luke Morris, he looks a good bet at 13/8 BOG (Stan James, BetVictor and Coral)
The one I fear most of the other four is Kuanyao. Trainer Dandy Nicholls is a wily old sort who is a dab hand at finding the right races for his horses. Kuanyao comes here in good form after back to back wins over 6f (Kempton and here) followed by a creditable run for fourth in a 0-85 handicap last time out. Any reproduction of that run will be enough to cause the favourite plenty of problems.
He’s a confirmed front-runner and if the others let him take an easy lead, this one could be all over before it really starts, making Kuanyao a real interest at a generally available 5/2 BOG.
A weak-looking Class 5 maiden isn’t always the ideal betting medium, but if we’ve got through the above race unscathed, this offers a real opportunity for us to complete the double. The prices won’t be the best, but if both favourites win, there’s still a small profit in it, plus we’ve the safety net of a couple of longer priced bets for free.
As earlier, just five are up for this one and with the two older horses conceding chunks of weight to the three others, they are immediately discarded, leaving us with Clear Spell, Ganymede and Secret Pursuit. Process of elimination sees me overlook Secret Pursuit after a disappointing C&D debut, where she weakened badly late on.
Clear Spell is the one to beat, as his even money price tag would suggest. He was only beaten by three parts of a length over C&D last time out and that was to another of those successful Gosden debutants. Any natural progression will be enough to take this.
If he doesn’t step up to the plate, though, I’m sure Ganymede will be on the premises to take advantage. he was beaten (by 4.5l) into 5th on his debut just a fortnight ago over C&D. He stayed on well that day coming from the very back of a 13-runner field and he’s expected to come on for that effort. If he can be kept a little closer to the action today, there might well be some value in the 5/2 BOG offered by Boylesports, Coral and Hills
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Ocean Legend / Clear Spell @ 9/2 (Coral 7/4 & evens)
Ocean Legend / Ganymede @ 8.625/1 (Coral 7/4 & 5/2)
Kuanyao / Clear Spell @ 6/1 (Bet365, PP 5/2 & evens)
Kuanyao / Ganymede @ 11.25/1 (Boylesports, Coral, Hills 5/2 & 5/2)