Stat of the Day, 11th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2014

Two necks made up the total margin of defeat for third-placed Olivers Mount yesterday, as he just didn’t quite have the last burst of pace required to overhaul the leaders.

He stayed the trip well enough and if I’m being super-critical, maybe he got going a fraction too late to get home after being well backed from our advised 9/2 right into an SP of 11/4.

We’re not a million miles from Lingfield today as we go chasing in the…

12.25 Kempton:

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Where the 4/1 BOG (BetVictor) chance Ice N Easy represents Charlie Longsdon in a Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4.5f…

1. Since sending out his first chaser in 2006, Charlie Longsdon has proved to be very profitable for his followers. In fact, if you’d put £10 on every one of his chasers to grace a UK racetrack, you’d have made £530 profit. It’s not quite enough to retire on, but a yield of 7.96% from blind backing on a large sample size is a good starting point.

Possibly of more relevance is the record since 2010 of his chasers sent off at 5/1 or under where has saddled up 79 winners from 209 (38% SR) for 74.23pts (+35.5% ROI)

Ice N Easy is making his debut for the Longsdon yard at the age of eight years old after 11 previous runs elsewhere…

2. Horses making their yard debut for Charlie Longsdon after having had 1 to 15 runs for other trainers tend to go well at the first time of asking. Since the start of 2011, that record reads as 12 winners from 47 (25.5% SR) for level stakes profits of some 189.7pts (+403.6% ROI). It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to work out that a return of over 400% has to include some big priced winners, so let’s take a look down where we normally operate.

It’s a much smaller sample but those yard debutants sent off at 5/1 or under have won 5 of 17 races (29.4%SR) for 8.24pts (+48.5% ROI) profit.

Ice N Easy is making his comeback to the track after a break of some 270 days (c. 9 months), this might be a problem to some, but…

3. Since the turn of 2010, Charlie Longsdon has sent out 216 horses after a break of between 4 months and 2 years to decent effect. The results are 49 winners from 216 (22.7% SR) for 145.2pts (+67.2% ROI) with a 34.6% strike rate (34/106) record with those horses priced at 5/1 or under.

Without a run since back to back chase victories within 4 days in April 2013, there’s no recent form to talk of, but if he can hit the ground running for his new yard, he looks fair set to complete a somewhat drawn out hat trick. He looked to be progressing nicely last campaign and any further improvement should be more than enough here.

I expect this one to attract some market support, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Ice N Easy at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor, but if you want to see what the other bookies are offering…

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