Stat of the Day, 12th January 2014
The margin of our defeat on Friday was two necks, on Saturday it was just a neck as Ice N Easy looked anything but a horse returning from a 9 month layoff. He stayed on really well, but failed in a gallant bid to catch the leader.
He was pushed on to take 2nd between the last two hurdles and was a good three lengths down after the last, but battled on and finished strongly to go down by just that neck. Another few yards and we’d have celebrating a nice 5/1 winner.
After knocking on the door over the last couple of days, I’m hopeful of a return to winning ways in the…
Where I’m expecting a good run from Prime Exhibit in this 8.5f, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap at a current best price of 3/1 BOG (Bet365). He’s top weight here today and comes here on the back of a decent 2nd place finish against better opposition over course and distance just six days ago. He was only beaten by 1.5 lengths that day by a horse receiving 6lbs on official ratings, with the 3rd place horse rated a whole 14lbs better, despite all three carrying the same weight.
1. Top weighted males running in UK, A/W, 4yo+, Class 5 to 7 handicaps have a good record when sent off at 6/1 or under on the back of a win or close (2 lengths max) defeat last time out. In such races of 7 to 12 furlongs in the 4 yr period 2010 to 2013, there were 68 winners from 239 such horses. That’s a strike rate of 28.5% producing level stakes profits of 108.3pts, a return of 45.3% above stakes invested.
91 of those 239 horses ran here at Wolverhampton, producing 26 winners at a rate of 28.6% for level stakes profits of 39.7pts, an ROI of 43.6%.
Prime Exhibit has been in consistent form of late, with finishes of 322 in his last three outings.
2. Horses who have finished 2nd or 3rd in each of their last three races prior to competing in Class 5 or 6 races at Wolverhampton have fared very well over the last couple of years over trips of five to ten furlongs. During 2012 and 2013, there were 85 of these horses priced at 4/1 or under and 36 of them won here. That’s a strike rate of 42.4% generating profits of 32.6pts, or 38.3% of stakes.
When applied to handicaps only, the figures are even more impressive at 18/40 (45% SR) for 28.3pts (+70.7% ROI)
Prime Exhibit has looked back to his best since returning to Daniel Loughnane’s yard and a repeat of his last effort in better company should surely be enough to both land the spoils and round off our week in style.
I wrote this piece at 10.30pm on Saturday evening, as I’m out on family duties from early Sunday, so not every bookie had opened a market on this race. The best on offer at the time of writing was my 1pt win bet on Prime Exhibit at 3/1 BOG with bet365, but as more firms open a book on this one, I suggest that you…