Double Dutch, 13th January 2014
Kelso was the latest racing casualty to the british weather yesterday and the loss of that meeting meant we were left with two single bets at Wolverhampton.
The good news is that we did manage to back the winner and further good news came when we beat the SP by a considerable margin. Not bad news as such, but it was, unfortunately, the favourite (and therefore shortest priced of our two selections!) that triumphed in the end, as Frost Fire prevailed by a half-length.
This gave us a 0.63pt profit on the day, which is still a return of over 30% of our stakes and moves us slowly in the right direction.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Little Glenshee: meeting abandoned (adv 7/4)
Hidden Horizons: meeting abandoned (adv 2/1)
Frost Fire : won at 11/10 (adv 13/8)
Diletta Tommasa : 4th of 4 at 6/1! (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
117 winning selections from 401 = 29.18%
37 winning doubles in 108 days = 34.26%
P/L : +13.56pts (+6.34% ROI)
Today’s selected races are:
Tarabela may well be getting on a bit nowadays, but this 11 yr old is proven on heavy ground (2 wins from her last three efforts) and has two career wins from seven at 3 miles and beyond. Her ability to handle the tricky underfoot conditions allied to her undoubted stamina make her a real contender here, plus with just 27 runs to her name, hasn’t exactly been overworked in her race career. She closed out last winter’s campaign with back to back wins, including a 7-length victory over 3m 0.5f at Taunton on heavy ground.
She was entitled to need the run when 4th on Boxing Day over an obviously inadequately short 2m 3.5f after a 10-month break and will strip fitter for that run back at a much more suitable trip, making her a very viable prospect at 7/2 BOG (generally)
The more likely winner, though, could well prove to be Glenwood Prince, who was switched to chasing after five unplaced efforts over hurdles. He has quickly proved to be far better over the larger obstacles with finishes of 3312 in his four chase starts to date. He won at Chepstow over 3 miles on heavy ground and followed that up with a second place over course and distance four weeks ago.
He drops back to Class 5 today and with proven ability over fences, course familiarity and the stamina to see out the trip/conditions, is a likely winner at 7/4 (PP)
This might well be all about Yasir, who comes here in fine form, finishing 1322 in his last four starts and clearly holds the best form in this weak-looking race. He has won three of his last eight over this trip, whilst making the frame on three other occasions (13312 in his last five over 1m4f), If he can maintain his recent form, he’ll be the one to beat at 3/1 BOG (Bet365 & Hills)
That’s not to say, he’ll have it all his own way here. I like the look of Gioia Di Vita too and despite failing to win any of his ten races since scoring on debut (here over 9.5f back on October 2012), this looks an ideal opportunity for him to get back on the scoresheet. In fairness, 8 of those 10 defeats came on turf, but he was a creditable 3rd over this trip at Catterick on heavy ground two starts ago, showing he doesn’t lack fight.
He seemed to run better last time out on his debut for his new yard, but ultimately found the 1m6f a bridge too far. If he can repeat the level of performance from his last two runs, now back on A/W over 1m4f, he has a really good chance at a decent price of 7/2 BOG
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Glenwood Prince / Yasir @ 10/1 (PP 7/4 & 3/1)
Glenwood Prince / Gioia Di Vita @ 10.81/1 (Boylesports, Stan James 13/8 & 7/2)
Tarabela / Yasir @ 17/1 (Bet365, PP & Hills 7/2 & 3/1)
Tarabela / Gioia Di Vita @ 19.25/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac 7/2 & 7/2)