Stat of the Day, 13th January 2014
After a couple of consecutive close defeats, both ourselves and Prime Exhibit got back to winning ways.
Stephen Craine gave the horse a very patient ride, holding him up in the rear of the pack until 2f from home. He started to then make headway to take the lead with a furlong to go and stayed on well to score more comfortably than the official half-length margin would suggest on paper.
The icing on the cake was the bookie-bashing 3/1 BOG odds we took from Bet365 about a 7/4 favourite.
The state of the turf at UK racecourses isn’t great due to the recent deluges we’ve suffered, so we’re sticking to the All-Weather today for a tilt at the…
Which is a Class 5 handicap for 3 yr olds over a trip of one mile, where Joe Fanning will ride the 5/1 shot Crowdmania for Mark Johnston.
1. Since the start of 2009, Mark Johnston has sent out 192 horses priced between 13/8 and 6/1 (our general SotD parameters!) on the all-weather here at Lingfield. 49 of those 192 have been returned as winners for a 25.5% strike rate, generating level stakes profits of 47.8pts, or 24.9% of stakes. Joe Fanning is 29/113 (25.7% SR) for 31.95pts (+28.3% ROI) from that 192 runner subset.
The record in the last two years is 24/95 (25.3% SR) for 27.01pts (+28.4% ROI) for Mark Johnston in total with Joe Fanning riding 17 winners from 67 of them (25.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 23.15pts, an ROI of 34.6%.
Crowdmania has been away from the track for over 3 months since his last run: 106 days to be precise.
2. Mark Johnston’s runners do tend to go well on their reappearance from a break. Since the start of 2011, Mark has had 43 winners from the 170 horses running after a break of two to six months and priced between 13/8 and 8/1. The resulting 25.3% strike rate has been instrumental in creating 88.64pts (+52.1% ROI). The record with Mr Fanning on board is 25/78 (32.1% SR) for 67.3pts (+86.3% ROI) profits.
From the 170 horses mentioned above, 111 of them were three-year olds and 33 (29.7% SR) of those 11 were victorious to the tune of 92.8pts level stakes profits, a return of 83.6% above stakes invested. Joe Fanning’s record on these 3 yr olds is 18/53 (34% SR) for 56.3pts (+106.2% ROI) profit.
Crowdmania is rated at 69 for this race today, just a pound shy of top weight and is dropping down from Class 4 to Class 5 for this one.
3. In the three years 2011 to 2013, males aged 3 or 4 who were top rated or within 1lb of top rating had a great record in All-Weather Class 5 races over trips of 6 to 9 furlongs. When they were running at the same level or one lower than last time out and priced between 5/2 and 6/1, they won 56 of 233 races, a strike rate of 24.0% giving rise to level stakes profits of 95.5pts, an ROI of 41.0%.
So, there’s a stack of stats to support our selection, so why is he available at 5/1 BOG? Well, there’ll be doubts over his race fitness after a 15-week layoff and there’s also the small matter of this being his A/W debut and over a trip a furlong longer than he’s run before.
You can however, be assured, that neither trainer nor jockey ever come to Lingfield just for the sake of it and their record together is great here. We should also note that 20 of Mark Johnston’s 93 sub-8/1 All-Weather debutants won last year with Joe Fanning riding 15 winners from 57.
I’ve placed my 1pt win bet on Crowdmania at 5/1BOG with BetVictor this morning, but several other firms are offering that same price, so for your pick of the bookies…