Stat of the Day, 14th January 2014
Crowdmania was absolutely hammered at the bookies yesterday,sent off as 7/4 fav from our advised 5/1 BOG and the gamble of the day was a fraction away from being landed.
It looked for all the world that he’d put the race to bed with just under a furlong to go, as he eased clear of the pack, but was undone on the line by an absolute flyer coming from way off the pace.
The margin of defeat in the photo finish was a short head and we look to recoup yesterday’s loss in the..
Where 9/2 shot (Hills) Munaawib aims for his 3rd C&D victory in four attempts at a track that favours previous C&D winners in certain conditions.
1. Since the start of 2010, male runners aged 8 or under in Southwell, A/W, Class 3 to 6 handicaps over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs with 1 to 3 previous course and distance wins to their name have won 160 times from 601 runners priced at 6/1 or under. That’s an excellent strike rate of 26.6% and whilst the profits of 88.6pts (+14.75% ROI) aren’t exactly stellar, it’s not bad at all from such a large sample size.
Munaawib is a 6yr old running in a Class 6, 7f handicap today and has 2 course and distance wins under his belt.
Munaawib was last seen four days ago when finishing third at Wolverhampton, beaten by a length and three quarters.
2. In the three years (and a fortnight!) since the turn of 2011, males aged 4 to 7 who were turned back out within five days of a losing top five finish, where they were less than 2 lengths away from the winner, have won 37 times from 147 runs when priced in the 5/2 to 8/1 range. This 25.2% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 72.2pts, an ROI of some 49.1%.
Munaawib runs from a mark 2lbs lower than that defeat on Friday and he reopposes the favourite George Benjamin on better terms than when they last met. Munaawib was only beaten by just under half a length that day over this course and distance a month ago. He likes it here as recent form proves with finishes of 121 in his last three runs here will testify: all of which were over today’s trip.
He’s enjoying a resurgence since a switch of yards and today will be only his fifth run for David Griffiths, but he’s already got a record of 2 wins and 2 places (1213) from the 4 races for his new trainer and I’m backing him to continue his fine run with a 1pt win bet on Munaawib at 9/2 BOG with Hills. If you prefer to use another bookie, you can see their odds when you…