Stat of the Day, 16th January 2014
Nobody wanted to back Lochnell yesterday, as she drifted out from our advised 17/2 to a massive 16/1 and I suppose the layers can say they got it right,as our mount was eventually placed 5th.
She actually gave a really good account of herself on debut, travelling strongly until 2f from home, but didn’t have the pace to go with the leading quartet who finished 11 to 15 lengths ahead of her.
She herself, however, was well clear of the other four runners and there was definitely some promise there to build on, but the bottom line is a 1pt loss for SotD.
Heavy ground everywhere today, including the…
A two-mile Class 4 Novices Hurdle, where I’m siding with Minella Reception, who comes here for his second UK start for Rebecca Curtis after nine (6 bumpers, 3 hurdles) races in Ireland for John Nallen.
Now, Miss Curtis doesn’t send many runners to compete in either bumpers or hurdle races here at Ludlow, but since the turn of 2009 her record in those races with horses priced at 6/1 or under is 10 winners from 21 (47.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.2pts , an ROI of 105.8%.
When isolating just her hurdlers here with the same odds parameters, we see an excellent record of 7/13 (53.8% SR) for a return of 17.7pts (+136% ROI).
Rebecca Curtis is also known for being able to get her horses to perform in the boggiest of conditions, with a very good record on the type of ground we’ll see here today (officially Heavy, Soft in places).
In the last four years her record with runners priced at 6/1 or under on Soft or Heavy ground is 48 winners from 151 runners, a strike rate of 31.8% generating profits of 39.5pts in the process, a very healthy 26.2% return on stakes invested. On heavy ground alone (which is where we’ll probably end up!) the figures improve to 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 21pts (+33.3% ROI) profit.
Should this one contract in price, I wouldn’t worry too much, those running at under 4/1 are currently 17/50 (34% SR) for 20pts (+40% ROI) profit.
As for Minella Reception himself, he’s hardly been overworked as an 8 yr old with just 10 races under his belt in almost two and a half years, so he’s nowhere near being overexposed. Today is just his fifth effort over hurdles and despite a career record of just one win in ten, he has shown some promise along the way. In addition to his sole victory to date, he has finished second on three occasions (beaten by a neck, half a length and a head) and also has a third place to his name.
He has a win and two seconds on Soft/Heavy ground with a record of 125 on Heavy. The 5th place was his last outing and yard debut a month ago when beaten by 4.5 lengths at Ffos Las. He’s entitled to have needed the run that day after a five-month break and he should strip fitter for that run.
There are a couple of obvious dangers towards the head of the market, but despite this being a field of 15, there doesn’t seem to be too much depth to it, so I’m happy to stake my 1pt bet on Minella Reception at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. I’ve actually had to wait 12 hours since writing the piece to get a price on this one and Bet365 are the first to show.
With that in mind, you might get a better price by waiting a little longer for the other firms to price this up. The easiest way to do this is to…