Stat of the Day, 17th January 2014
Minella Reception was a non-runner yesterday, but keep an eye out for him reappearing on heavy ground again soon. Another one turning out quickly is Crowdmania, who narrowly failed to land the spoils for us on Monday and can now be backed at 9/4 BOG to make amends in the 5.30 Wolverhampton this evening.
But, we’re overlooking that one as our selection and instead we’re off to Ireland for the……
Where Tracey Collins’ Indian Landing can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG in his attempt to take his record at Dundalk to three wins and a place from four outings over course and distance
Tracey has an excellent record here at Dundalk with an 18.3% strike rate over the last three years (17 winners from 93). If you’d put a £10 bet on all 93 runners, you’d currently be sitting on a profit of £598.40, an ROI of 64.34%.
There’s no one winner skewing the above figures either. Tracey’s runners here are profitable at all odds bands and come with a decent strike rate. From the original 17/93 record, 16 of the winners were priced at 12/1 or under, where the record reads 16/56 (28.6% SR) for 56.35pts (+100.6% ROI) and further filtering down gives us:
8/1 odds cap: 13/41 (31.7% SR) for 32.97pts (+80.4% ROI)
6/1 odds cap: 10/31 (32.3% SR) for 16.35pts (+52.7% ROI)
4/1 odds cap: 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 10.92pts (+49.6% ROI)
The 6 yr old Indian Landing is Tracey’s only runner on the card this evening and he comes here on the back of a course and distance win last time out (5 weeks ago).
In nine of the last ten years, it has been profitable to back male horses priced between evens and 6/1 on the Flat or A/W in Ireland when they were running in a handicap race within 2 months of that LTO victory.
And we’re talking about a large sample size too! 361 winners from 1490 runners (24.2% SR) to be precise and these have generated some 365.13pts (+24.5%) profits with almost a quarter (22.8%) of those runners featuring here at Dundalk and producing almost 30% of the profits.
The figures at Dundalk are 89/340 (26.2% SR) for 106.61pts (+31.4% ROI) with 3 to 6 yrs olds performing best (our selection is aged 6) at 82/298 (27.5% SR) for 115.75pts (+38.8% ROI) profit.
There are three LTO runners in this field, but only Indian Landing fulfills the above criteria and he’s the most leniently treated for his win. He is raised just 2lbs for that C&D victory, whilst Dancing Cosmos has to carry an extra 8lbs this evening and the favourite Maontri is up another 10lbs after being raised 15lbs LTO. Surely a 25lb total rise in two races will be a step too far?
I’d have thought so, thus my 1pt bet is on Indian Landing at 5/2 BOG. I’m using my Coral account today, but this price is quite readily available, so why not…