Double Dutch, 20th January 2014
Winners at 2/1 (Gitane du Berlais sent off at evens) and 7/2 (Smart Exit won at a SP of 7/2) made for a nice 14/1 double yesterday to round off the week in style.
The icing on the cake came, when I looked at the SP results and noticed that the double was then priced at 8/1, once again highlighting the necessity of taking the price from a BOG bookmaker.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Gitane du Berlais : won at Evens (adv 2/1)
Theatre Bird : PU at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Smart Exit : won at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Mansonien Las : 3rd at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
124 winning selections from 428 = 28.97%
40 winning doubles in 115 days = 34.78%
P/L : +16.91pts (+7.42% ROI)
Not much to choose from today, so we’re off to Dunstall Park:
Saharia is a 6-times course winner, with five victories over today’s course and distance and looks a good bet at 2/1 BOG with Hills to continue his fine run in sellers which currently stands at 5 wins and 2 places from 7 (13111 here at Wolverhampton and four from four in sellers over C&D).
He’s only as long as 2/1 BOG due to the presence of the 13/8 BOG (Coral) favourite Elusive Hawk, who is an interesting one dropped into this class. He looks very well weighted based on his previous form and if he goes well enough after a 4 months break (he has run well fresh in the past), he could well be another winner for David Evans.
I can’t make a case for the other pair in this contest and this might be an easy forecast to boot.
Top-weighted (after jockey claims) horses tend to do very in these low grade handicaps at Wolverhampton and I expect that to be the case here with Secular Society this evening. He’s a half-brother to winners around this trip and he was placed in all three of his runs to date. He’s not been allocated too high a mark for his handicap debut, but the assessor already thinks he’s better than the reast of this pack and gets my vote at 11/8 BOG with Coral.
Lean on Pete knows his way around this track and should prove the biggest threat to the selection. All four of his career wins have come over this course and distance and his record in these Class 5 contests over C&D reads 114341. He’s only 2lbs higher than that last win and should be on the premises to give the favourite a run for his money with the same 5lb claimer on board as that last win. He looks a decent alternative at a generally available 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Elusive Hawk / Secular Society @ 5.23/1 (Coral 13/8 & 11/8)
Elusive Hawk / Lean on Pete @ 8.19/1 (Coral 13/8 & 5/2)
Saharia / Secular Society @ 6.83/1 (Skybet 15/8 & 11/8)
Saharia / Lean on Pete @ 9.50/1 (Hills 2/1 & 5/2)