Stat of the Day, 20th January 2014
Astigos was eventually sent off as 15/8 favourite on Sunday, after we’d backed him at 7/2, so it was a decent value bet for us once again. Unfortunately he was outpaced three from home and although he stayed on well enough to finish fourth, he wasn’t really within touching distance of the places.
His run rounded off a poor week for me here at SotD, with a 0/6 record, but we’re still in profit for the month and today heralds the start of a new week.
No jumps action today, so just two A/W meetings to pick from and we’re looking at the…
Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG at Hills about Richard Fahey’s Kyllachy Star, who will today be ridden by George Chaloner.
Richard Fahey’s record at Southwell in A/W handicaps is runners priced below 8/1 is 43 winners from 182 (23.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+24.1% ROI) with George Chaloner 2/5 for 8.2pts from those 182 runners.
George’s overall record for Mr Fahey is very good indeed with 28 winners from 192 rides (14.6% SR) for 114.6pts (+59.7% ROI) and his own personal record at Southwell is 5/12 on horses priced at 8/1 or under. It’s a small sample size for sure, but 17.6pts profit is still a decent return.
Today will be the second time he has ridden Kyllachy Star, after they teamed up at Lingfield 16 days ago. The horse stayed on well to win by two lengths over today’s trip (he’s 6/31 at 7/7.5 furlongs) and not only was that George’s first ride on him, it was the horses first effort in a visor and also his first win after along losing run of 25 races spread over 41 months!
He took advantage of a plummeting handicap mark that day, winning off 65 and only narrowly failed to follow-up off 70 a week later at Wolverhampton, where yet again he stayed on, but went down by a half-length.
He runs off 70 again today in the visor and if he handles the deeper surface here at Southwell, he could go in again. He has some decent runs under his belt on turf on ground worse than good, including some decent efforts at Class 2 level a couple of years ago off marks in the high 80’s to low 90’s.
He’s clearly not the horse of old, but he still runs here 24lbs lower than his highest winning mark and takes a step back in class today.
His yard surely wouldn’t send him onto this surface for the first time after a 60-race career, if they didn’t think he would “get” it and the trip isn’t a concern, so if he applies himself as he can, there could be some value in a 1pt win bet on Kyllachy Star at 7/2 BOG with Hills. to see what other prices are available…