Stat of the Day, 21st January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2014

Kyllachy Star was 3rd at 11/4 yesterday, after we backed him at 7/2, but I’ve got to hold my hands up here and tell you I made a massive error!

I completely overlooked the winner of the race, Ace Master who was a bet on two of the plethora of micro-systems I often use for SotD. How and why this happened is beyond me and I only noticed at lunchtime.

That doesn’t mean the stats weren’t valid, nor does it mean I would have picked Ace Master. What would (and should!) have happened is that I would have chosen a different race, because this aberration aside, I had a decent day off two poor-looking cards, including another profitable day for the Double Dutch, but I digress!

My mistake, I owe you one, let’s move on to the…

4.15 Southwell:

And a horse that I backed at 14/1 last Tuesday, when she eventually ran out a 10/1 winner over course and distance. We’re not getting 14’s or even 10’s about Guishan this time around, but 6/1 BOG (PP) is more than fair based on last week’s effort.

1. Guishan is trained by Michael Appleby, whose record in Southwell A/W handicaps with horses priced at 6/1 or under is 27 wins from 87  = 31.03% for level stakes profits of 37.17pts, an ROI of 42.72%.

2. Michael Appleby’s last time out winners have gone on to follow-up on 7 of the 25 occasions they been sent back out within seven weeks of that last win and were priced on the 5/2 to 10/1 category. It’s a fairly small sample size, but the 28% strike rate has yielded 21pts profit for an ROI of 84%.

3. Guishan is another of my “Back To Form” horses ie running on the A/W within 30 days of a win that came after a string of at least 3 unplaced efforts. Guishan was 2nd over course and distance on her debut almost ten months ago, but then failed to make the frame in any of her subsequent seven efforts before winning last week, making her a new qualifier for this particular microsystem, which found 58 winners from 193 runners priced at 6/1 or under last year. That 30.05% strike rate produced level stakes profits of 70.22pts, or the equivalent of 36.38% over stakes invested.

Guishan carries a 6lb penalty for last week’s win, but she led from the off and controlled the race, eventually winning by a couple of lengths and looking like she had plenty in reserve, had a challenge been thrown down.  She wore cheekpieces for the first time last week to good effect and they are applied again for this one. Any repeat of last week’s performance could well and should be enough to take this race.

I’m on Guishan at 6/1 BOG with PP and after my recent run, I could always take the safety-first E/W option at those prices, but they do say that fortune favours the brave, so it’s win only for me today. You can, of course, choose your own staking method after you…

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