Double Dutch, 21st January 2014
Two more winning favourites combined to maintain our current run of good form. If only I could transfer some of it to SotD, where I can’t buy a winner!
Saharia was the pick of the day and I was very happy to get 2/1 early doors. When the race was reduced to a 3-horse event including an 8/1 runner, I knew I’d secured some great value, even at 6/4 after a 25p in the £ ruling. And so it proved as Sharia was eventually returned a 4/6 winner!
6/4 was also the return from Secular Society in the last race of the day, he’d eased slightly out from 11/8 to give us a double at 5.25/1, which was a good deal better than the 3.16/1 at SP.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Saharia : won at 4/6! (adv 2/1, but 6/4 after R4)
Elusive Hawk : 3rd of 3 at 7/4 (adv 11/9 after R4)
Secular Society : won at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
Lean on Pete : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
126 winning selections from 432 = 29.17%
41 winning doubles in 116 days = 35.34%
P/L : +18.04pts (+7.84% ROI)
I’m hoping to keep the run going with these today:
Columbian Roulette should be coming here on the back of an easy course and distance win, but he ejected his jockey when jinking suddenly inside the final furlong when he was at least six lengths clear. His handlers are taking no chances today: Luke Morris takes the ride and both hood and blinkers will be applied in a bid to keep him straight late on. This isn’t a particularly string race and a similar effort to lat time (but keeping his rider on board!) would easily be enough to make amends at a generally available 2/1 BOG.
The main danger could well come from Frankthetank who landed a bit of a coup when getting home at this track a week ago at a price of 10/1. He steps up another furlong today, but he was staying on strongly at the death last week and was still pulling away from the pack to win by just over two lengths. He looked like he wanted to go further and today he gets that chance. The Dalgleish horses are going well again and this one can be backed at an attractive 3/1 BOG with Coral.
Caroline Bailey’s horses are going well at present, with 3 winners from the 7 she’s sent out this year and she’s 4 from 10 in the last four weeks. She runs Carli King here, who is a newcomer to rules racing this season at the age of 8 and has gone straight into chasing. He did however have the benefit of some good Irish Point form (2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 fourths from 7 attempts on mainly soft ground).
He has been getting progressively better (33421) culminating in a comfortable 10 length victory here on soft ground a fortnight ago. He looked like he’d plenty in the tank that day and I’d expect to take the extra 3 furlongs in his stride today, especially considering he has two wins at 3 miles on Soft/Heavy from his pointing days. He stays and he jumps and he’s got a really good chance here at 11/4 BOG (PP).
The interesting one in this field of six is the likely favourite Grey Wulff, who currently trades at around the 2/1 BOG mark. This will be only his second attempt over fences and only his eighth race under Rules at the age of 9. He was only placed once in his seven starts over hurdles, but that was at least on heavy ground and at a trip just a furlong shorter than today.
He looked a much better chaser than a hurdler and seemed set to win on his chasing debut at Taunton over 3 miles when he fell 3 from home. He was leading by 2.5 lengths and cruising at the time and traded as low as 1.22 on betfair, such was the expectation he’d get home. A repeat of that run coupled with a clear round would easily be enough here, so why the doubts? Well, it’s 2 years and 12 days since that run at Taunton and if he’s not quite race-fit, that could allow Carli King to prevail.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Columbian Roulette / Grey Wulff @ 8/1 (Betfred, PP, Coral 2/1 & 2/1)
Columbian Roulette / Carli King @ 10.25/1 (PP 2/1 & 11/4)
Frankthetank / Grey Wulff @ 11/1 (Coral 3/1 & 2/1)
Frankthetank / Carli King @ 13.06/1 (PP 11/4 & 11/4)