Stat of the Day, 27th January 2014
Trinityelitedotcom was overhauled with less than half a furlong to go yesterday to narrowly deny SotD a hat-trick of wins. Our 3/1 pick was heavily backed into 5/4 favouritism, but not all favourites win and so it proved yesterday.
Abandonments, snow, cold weather and heavy ground are making life difficult today, but I’ve picked that one that should do better than his overall form might suggest in the…
Where my selection, And The Man, comes here with the unenviable record of having been pulled up in five of his last seven starts (PPP1PP2), but it could also be suggested that two wins and a staying on 2-length defeat from his last eight isn’t bad at all (1PPP1PP2).
It’s all a question of which of his runs you pick and choose, I suppose. This is a 2m4f contest on heavy ground and the majority (4) of those P’s came over trips a couple of furlongs shorter than this (outpaced) or at least 3.5f longer than today, when he didn’t stay. His actual record at this trip is 61P2.
Three of the five P’s came from his only three outings at Kelso, whereas his record here at Ayr is better at 611P2. So, it would appear that track and trip should be to his liking today (612 over C&D, of which 12 on soft/heavy).
He was second last time out (2nd Jan) here over and course and distance, when he stayed on well to finish a couple of lengths behind Wicklow Lad who went on to run third in a better contest at Wetherby last week.
And The Man is trained by Nicky Richards, who has a good recent record with horses priced at 12/1 or under on heavy ground. In the last three years, Nicky has been successful with a dozen from forty such horses (30% SR) returning backers with level stakes profits of 27pts (+67.50% ROI). At odds of below 9/2 (where we’re likely to be today, the record is 9/22 for 11.45pts)
This horse isn’t entirely straightforward, but this race represents the kind of conditions I’d want to see him in, so the 4/1 BOG generally available looks pretty fair/attractive to me. He’d probably be shorter, but for the presence of a sub-2/1 favourite, but as we know from experience, they don’t always win!
With all this in mind, the play is a 1pt win bet on And The Man at 4/1 BOG and I’ve placed my bet with BetVictor, who still hold my winnings from Saturday! The price is widely available, so please…