Stat of the Day, 28th January 2014
And The Man took our recent run to three wins and a second in four days after he eventually won comfortably at Ayr yesterday. I say eventually, because it didn’t look like he either wanted to or was able to pass the leader for a while, but as they jumped the last together, he asserted himself on the run-in to open up a three and a half-length lead by the finish.
He didn’t look like a horse who had been pulled up in five of seven races, but as suggested, 2m4f on heavy ground at Ayr seems to be his bag. The icing on the cake came from our 4/1 advisory price beating the SP by half a point. Hopefully this end of month hot streak will continue today in the last race, the…
Where like yesterday, the selection and choice of race might not seem straightforward, but we’re tackling a 2m1f Mares Bumper on yet more heavy ground and I’m backing Seamus Mullins’ Kentford Myth here.
Seamus Mullins has an enviable record in bumpers, because unusually he’s a trainer who you could profit from by just backing all his bumper runners. Although his strike rate is low for SotD, his horses are often unfancied in the market and as such return decent profits. To date his record in bumpers reads 24 wins from 325 (just 7.38% SR), but the level stakes profit of 104.2pts represents some 32.1% of stakes invested: not bad at all from blind backing. In 2013, his bumper runners were 5/31 for 57.5pts profit.
And like Nicky Richards yesterday, Seamus Mullins is another of the go-to trainers in the mud. In the last two years with runners priced between 5/2 and 28/1, he has a record of 11 winners from 56 on heavy ground. That 19.64% strike rate is very good and has helped his followers to huge profits of 99.04pts, an ROI of 176.9%.
From the 56 runners on heavy in the last two years:
Female runners are 5/19 (26.32% SR) for 40.43pts (+212.8% ROI)
In bumpers, 2/5 for +49.06pts!
There’s not much to say about the horse herself, other than she’s related to several winners, including being a full sister to successful 2m3f hurdler Kentford Legend, suggesting she’ll have no problem staying the trip. She’s had the benefit of previous racing experience when 5th in a junior bumper last month on soft ground and she races off a feather weight of 10-5 today, even before her jockey takes another seven pounds of, meaning she’s getting chunks of weight all around.
Kentford Myth is Seamus’ only runner here today and I’d expect him to be coming with some expectations of a decent run in his speciality type of race. It looks like a fairly open contest, but the selection is Kentford Myth here today. SkyBet were the first to show their hand this morning and as they were offering 9/1 BOG, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet.
As more and more firms open their markets, you can always stay informed if you just…