Stat of the Day, 29th January 2014
Yesterday’s selection was a bit of a punt based on a trainer profile on a day of poor racing. Sometimes they come off and sometimes they don’t. Yesterday was one of those days where it didn’t come off.
Kentford Myth kept up with what looked like a reasonable pace in tricky conditions, but when push came to shove and the pace quickened 6f from home, she was unable to go with the leaders. She eventually finished way back in 9th of the 13 runners, some 58 lengths off the leader.
At an Advised price of 9/1, we did at least beat the SP price of 13/2, but that’s scant consolation as we head into another difficult day decimated by the weather. Hobson’s Choice today with just one meeting to aim at, but we’ll try to find the winner of the…
Where I’ve just taken 2/1 BOG with BetVictor about Ralph Beckett’s Taquka in this 6f, Class 5 Maiden for 3 to 5 yr olds. It’s not normally the type of race I’d tackle for SotD and the price is a little skinnier than we’d normally look for, but with little else appealing today, this is where we are!
Since 2008, Ralph Beckett’s record at Kempton is 72 winners from 336 runners: a strike rate of 21.43% yielding level stakes profits of 123.2pts, an ROI of 36.67%. With runners priced below 4/1, as we are today, the figures are 45/116 (38.8% SR) for 41.43pts (+35.7% ROI) profit, so we’ve at least got a trainer with good course stats.
Taquka is a 3yr old maiden and Ralph’s record over the last 8 years with these 3yr olds is very good indeed. Applying the same 4/1 odds cap as above, we find 60 winners from 127 such runners, a strike rate of 47.24% bringing in profits of 57.45pts (+45.24% ROI) and since 2009, the record is 50/102 (49%) for 52.25pts (+51.23% ROI). He’s 8/16 for 9.66pts with those runners here at Kempton.
Despite not landing his first win yet, Taquka has been knocking on the door since day 1 with a string of results reading 3222 with an ever decreasing margin of defeat (6.8L, 1.5L, 0.5L and a neck). Since 2010, horses running at Class 5 or 6 level on the All-Weather priced at 4/1 or under after finishing second on three successive occasions have won 37 of 104 races. This 35.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 27.13pts or 26.1% of stakes invested.
And of those 104 runners, 51 of them also ran in a Class 5 event last time out with 20 of the 51 (39.22% SR) going on to win, returning profits of 20.47pts (+40.14% ROI).
Taquka is a likeable sort and the way he stayed on in those recent defeats over 5f suggest he’ll appreciate the step up to 6f, providing he gets the surface. His dam Dubai Princess was a winner on Polytrack and also had won over this 6f trip, whilst his sire Kodiak was a very useful sort with wins at both 6f and 7f on turf, dirt and all-weather.
As I said earlier, it’s a shorter priced bet than usual, but there’s a very good chance we’ll be collecting from a 1pt win bet on Taquka at 2/1 BOG with BetVictor today. To see what the other bookies are prepared to offer…