Double Dutch, 30th January 2014
My current run of poor form continued yesterday, where a 2nd place finish in the second race was the best I could muster. Race 1 went the same way as the final race on Tuesday, with me getting our runners in the right order, but beaten into 3rd and 4th place.
Saffire Song didn’t get a clear run home in the later contest, but that probably only changed the margin of defeat rather than the actual possibility of defeat. She wasn’t making up any ground late on, if truth be told and that was the best we got!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Poitin: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Apache Glory: 4th at 12/1 (adv 10/1)
Saffire Song: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 10/3)
Female Strategy: 4th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
129 winning selections from 467 = 27.62%
41 winning doubles in 125 days = 32.80%
P/L : +0.04pts (+0.02% ROI)
And with this current run of losing bets, the profit has all but gone. We’ve been above break even for some while now and we need winners from these to maintain the status quo:
Benny’s Mist has 6 career wins from 21 starts, with all six wins coming on ground described as soft or heavy. He’s actually 5 from 7 on heavy ground and he won comfortably over course and distance here a fortnight ago on similar ground conditions. The manner of that latest victory, clear from 2 out and eased to a 7L win, suggests a 6lb rise in weight won’t hold him back and he’d be my pick at a widely available 9/4 BOG.
There are a few interesting runners at longer odds here, but I fancy the main challenge to come from Ultragold, who can currently be backed at 11/4 BOG in places. He was a winner in a couple of chases in France, before coming to join the Tizzard yard and has shown some promise in finishing 2nd and 3rd in his last two outings.
He travelled really strongly in his last race at Lingfield but wilted late on when under pressure. That was a 3 mile event and the drop back to 2m5f should suit him better. His yard was virus-ridden at the time and this may have affected his stamina late on in that contest too.
Ultragold’s two wins in France came on Very Soft and Heavy going, so he shouldn’t be too troubled by the mud flying about today either.
Just four go to post for this one and the lack of any form on heavy ground coupled with some recent disappointing runs is enough for me to discard Notarfbad. Of the remaining three, Tresor de Bontee wasn’t as good over hurdles as either of Brick Red or Close House, but TdB would be my pick for this race at 15/8 BOG. He jumps really well and he has won both on his races on heavy ground, including his chasing debut last time out.
Of the remaining two runners, Brick Red is a better jumper than Close House and is unexposed in this sphere of racing and is my secondary at 9/4 BOG with Hills. A win on his chasing debut on heavy ground was followed up by a 2.5 length defeat at Newbury a fortnight ago. He has won three and placed twice from his last five runs on soft/heavy ground and he has a four from six record at this minimum trip. He was a very smart Grade 2 hurdler, finishing 2nd off a mark of 146 less than a year ago and could still be well treated off 135 today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Benny’s Mist / Tresor de Bontee @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 generally)
Benny’s Mist / Brick Red @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 Hills)
Ultragold / Tresor de Bontee @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 BetVictor)
Ultragold / Brick Red @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 Hills)