Stat of the Day, 31st January 2014
Reality Show looked to travel well tucked in just behind the leaders in fifth place, but when push came to shove two furlongs from home, he rather faded than kicked on.
He ended up losing another couple of places and although he finished back in 7th of 11 runners, he was only beaten by five lengths by the 6/4 favourite I thought was too short at 7/4!
We don’t get it right all the time, but january has been good for us and I aim to sign it off with another winning bet in the…
Where I have selected the top weight (Gabrial The Boss) in this 8.5f, Class 5 handicap for 4 yr olds and upwards.
This horse comes here on the back of a win over a mile at Kempton sixteen days ago and has been running pretty well of late and stays on towards the end of the mile trip, suggesting the extra 141 yards might suit him tonight.
Top weighted males running in All-Weather, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicaps have fared very well in the last few years when racing on the back of a decent run last time out. A top 3 placing, where they either won or finished within two lengths of the winner last time out has seen them go on to win 50 of 202 races in the last 5 years. This strike rate of 24.8% has produced level stakes profits of 62.24pts, an ROI of 30.8%.
In the last two years that figure rises to 23 winners from 85 (27.1% SR) for 50.9pts (+59.9% ROI).
Gabrial The Boss will be ridden by Tom Eaves tonight and this isn’t normally a positive aspect! Tom’s record here at Wolverhampton isn’t great.
In fact, his strike rate here is a lowly 9% in the last six years (83 winners from 918) and if you’d staked £10 on each of those rides, you’d be looking at a £3562.50 shaped hole in your bank account. That’s a loss of almost 39% of your stake money and that’s got to hurt.
However (and there’s always a however! 😀 ), when Tom rides in Class 4 & 5 handicaps on horses priced below 10/1, he has a 25.4% strike rate, courtesy of 31 winners from 122 runners and this has generated 77.22pts profit, a sum equivalent to 63.3% of stakes: figures I find much more palatable!
Gabrial The Boss seems to come alive at this time of year, as he rattled up an A/W four-timer this time last year and comes here to Wolverhampton as an LTO winner and having won two of his last three attempts over course and distance.
He’s not likely to be amongst the favourites for this one, but I’d expect him to go off shorter than the current 17/2 available at BetVictor, in fact he’s as low as 11/2 with Ladbrokes already.
This means we’ve a bit of room in the price, so the play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Gabrial The Boss at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor, but if you want to see that price at Ladbrokes or any other bookie for that matter, just…