Stat of the Day, 1st February 2014
It was a strange one yesterday, as nobody wanted to back our selection Gabrial The Boss. I was quite pleased to have been able to take 17/2 the night before the race, as I thought I’d “stolen” a couple of points from the bookies. Yet, he drifted so much that his eventual SP was 20/1!
Obviously, a horse doesn’t know he’s drifting and he certainly didn’t run like a 20/1 shot. In fact, he had every chance of winning inside the final furlong, but didn’t quite have enough extra to get home, finally going down by just 1.75 lengths.
It wasn’t a huge margin of defeat, but the handicapper will have had a wry smile to himself, as our horse finished 6th in a tight finish, suggesting the assessor had a good day with this one.
In short, a gallant run belying his large odds, but no cigar for us, win or place! We stay at Wolverhampton today to hopefully start the new month with a winner in the…
Where the selection is the 4yr old filly Take The Lead, as she aims for her second win inside four days, after virtually making all to score over 6 furlongs at Southwell on Tuesday. She held on / stayed on to win by a neck having been joined in the final furlong.
The short and the sweet about today’s selection is that fillies turned back out on the Flat/AW for Class 5 to 7 contests within five days of winning LTO do very well indeed.
Those returning fillies have won 53 of 130 races when priced at 6/1 or under in the last three years with the resulting 40.8% strike rate generating some 63.5pts (+48.8% ROI) profit and if we disregard any odds on runners we have figures of 41/111 (36.9% SR) for 63pts profits (+56.74% ROI).
Of the initial 130 runners, 89 competed at a trip of a mile or under with 38 (42.7% SR) going on to win, which produced level stakes profits of 61.6pts, an ROI of 69.2% and if we once again cast aside the odds on runners that we wouldn’t back anyway, we get 26/67 (38.8% SR) for 62.1pts (+92.6% ROI).
All of which leads us to the sole filly fitting the above criteria and ultimately a 1pt bet on Take The Lead at 11/2 BOG with SkyBet, but the price is also on offer in three or four other places, so why not…