Double Dutch, 3rd February 2014
Our three-day winning run came to an abrupt end yesterday, as the results of both races had an eerily similar outcome.
The main selection (and favourite) of each race disappointed and even failed to place, whilst both backup choices were sent off at an SP of 9/2 and both finished third.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Kie: 3rd at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Upepito: u/p at 5/4 (adv 6/4)
Hamis Al Bin: 3rd at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Star In The Sky: u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
135 winning selections from 483 = 27.95%
44 winning doubles in 129 days = 34.11%
P/L : +7.14pts (+2.79% ROI)
Hoping that we can get back to winning ways quickly from a couple of spins around Dunstall Park on what looks a particularly poor day of racing:
I can’t see there being much to separate Funky Cold Medina and Maggie Pink in this one. Maggie Pink is the current market leader at a best price of 7/4 BOG and she comes here with a record of 5 wins and 4 places from 14 efforts at this trip. She’s a triple course and distance winner from just five attempts and has to be respected here for the in-form Michael Appleby yard.
Yet, despite that record, I have a slight preference for 11/4 BOG shot Funky Cold Medina, whose narrow defeat to Smalljohn over this course and distance a week ago is the best recent form on offer. She wore a visor for the first time that day and if the headgear does the trick again, then a similar run to last week off the same mark could just be enough for her to get her nose in front of the favourite.
As with the above race, both myself and the bookies think it’s a 2-horse shootout between the two horses at the top of the market, of which Ocean Legend is currently the 9/4 BOG favourite with Coral and his recent runner-up finish at Lingfield 10 days ago probably represents the best recent run of any of the runners here today. The veteran was doing his best work late on in that race and although he was unable to quicken in the dying stages, a similar kind of run might just be enough today.
But, just like the above race, my preference here is not for the favourite, but for the perennial bridesmaid Ain’t No Surprise, who comes here on the back of 5 straight second place finishes. She’s never beaten by far, though, with a total margin of defeat across those 5 races adding up to just over 9 lengths and I’d expect her to break that sequence today thanks to her being well treated courtesy of her weight for age allowance.
She’s rated 8lbs lower than the favourite, but actually gets to carry some 22lbs less than Ocean Legend for this one and that difference coupled with her general consistency at this level means it Ain’t No Surprise to see her available at a best price of 5/2 BOG here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Maggie Pink / Ocean Legend @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Coral)
Maggie Pink / Ain’t No Surprise @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, Stan James & Coral)
Funky Cold Medina / Ocean Legend @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Funky Cold Medina / Ain’t No Surprise @ 12.12/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : PP, Bet365 & Ladbrokes)