Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2014
After some indifferent performances from my selections over the last few days (Wednesday’s gubbing aside), it was nice to record a small profit from Clarcam’s run yesterday.
An E/W 2nd at 7/1 might have only generated a 0.2pt profit on the day, but that 20% return on the day isn’t a bad target to aim for and it’s the kind of ROI that we’ve run to in the 27 months of SotD. The real task is consistency!
I’m aiming to go one better than yesterday’s result in today’s…
Where, on what looks a really difficult day to pick winners, it’s all about the trainer rather than the horse with a selection that probably looks like a bit of a punt!
Basically, if you backed every Charlie Longsdon runner in a NH race at Southwell in the last three years, you have got yourself 14 winners and 5 placers from just 47 bets. The win strike rate of 29.8% is excellent and has produced level stakes profits of 10.1pts, or 21.4% of stakes invested.
Four of his last nine runners here have won with a further two making the frame and his record on soft/heavy ground here in the last years is 5 wins and 2 places from 11, a win strike rate of 45.5% for 8.92 pts (+81.1% ROI) with a record of 3 wins and a place from 6 runners on heavy ground for a 2.61pts (+43.5% ROI).
If we go back to the original 47 runners over the last three years here at Southwell, 32 of them were priced at 14/1 or under with 10 of them winning (31.25% SR) and a further three were placed. Those 10 winners helped to produce 18.52pts (+57.9% ROI) profit and the record on soft/heavy ground was four winners and a place from just six runners for 12.2pts profit with a two from two (+4.9pts) record on heavy ground.
Charlie has just one runner today and Leith Hill Legasi runs here at Southwell on heavy, but not bottomless (rails moved to provide fresh turf) ground and at first glance looks a bit of a longshot at an average price of around 10/1 BOG, but the presence of two horses at 4/5 and 13/8 are probably keeping the rest of the field at artificially high prices. They’ll possibly drift later, meaning our early BOG price should represent some value later.
Leith Hill Legasi will be ridden by Kielan Woods today who has produced level stakes profits of 49pts from his rides this season and we’ll be hoping he can steer our mount into the frame at least.
As I said earlier, this horse is currently trading at around the 10/1 mark, so I’m happy to be able to place a 0.5pts E/W bet on Leith Hill Legasi at 16/1 BOG with SkyBet. It’s a far better price than anywhere else, but you can see for yourself, if you…