Double Dutch, 4th February 2014
Ain’t No Surprise’s drift from 5/2 to 3/1 coupled with Maggie Pink’s earlier win at 7/4 meant we got a nice 10/1 double on the day and the icing on the cake came when I called the second race just right and netted an exacta at £9.90.
Yesterday’s win puts our recent run at four winning days from five and we’re slowly building that bank up again.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Maggie Pink: won at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Funky Cold Medina: u/p at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Ain’t No Surprise: won at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Ocean Legend: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
(The Exacta paid a nice £9.90 here)
Results to date:
137 winning selections from 487 = 28.13%
45 winning doubles in 130 days = 34.62%
P/L : +10.64pts (+4.12% ROI)
It’s good to be back in double digits profit and I’m confident of improving the bottom line with these today:
This one is all about Light The City and Mister Frosty for me, with the former returning to the flat after some good recent form over hurdles, winning twice and finishing second in his last three outings. He won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip either, as he’s already won three times over 12 furlongs and he also has the benefit of one of the best amateur jockeys in the business in Serena Brotherton, making him a very likely winner at 2/1 BOG with BetInternet & Stan James.
Mister Frosty was an easy winner of this very race in 2012 and races off a mark just a pound higher than that run and he looks one of the best of what appears a poor race and recent efforts at this track over the winter would suggest he’ll be the main threat to the selection and can also be backed at 2/1 BOG (Hills & Stan James) for this one.
Benefit Cut is the clear favourite here and the best price on offer is the 11/8 BOG at Stan James and it’s quite easy to see why. He made an impressive chase debut at Ascot last time out, when finishing second at 10/1 in a stronger contest than this. He recovered from a bad stumble 2 from home to still get within a length and a quarter of the eventual winner. A clear round here today should be more than enough to take the spoils.
Of the challengers, the one who interests me the most is the chase debutant Mystifiable, despite him being a seven-race maiden in bumpers and hurdle events. Yet, although he hasn’t won a race to date, he has been consistent and is still improving, finishing in the frame in five of his last six races and produced a career-best performance when second at Uttoxeter last time out to a horse who was subsequently third in a better contest at Wincanton three weeks ago.
We’re obviously having to take his ability over the larger obstacles for granted, but that does get reflected in the price on offer, where 4/1 BOG seems to be the going rate.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Light The City / Benefit Cut @ 6.13/1 (2/1 & 11/8 : Stan James)
Light The City / Mystifiable @ 13.38/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : SkyBet & Coral)
Mister Frosty / Benefit Cut @ 6.13/1 (2/1 & 11/8 : Stan James)
Mister Frosty / Mystifiable @ 13.38/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : SkyBet)