Stat of the Day, 5th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2014

It was a strange race yesterday, as Divine Intavention defied a nine-month absence to win by 23 lengths in a contest where only two of the six runners completed the course with a faller and three horses pulled up.

Two horses came out of the race whilst leading late on, whilst our selection weakened after a couple of mistakes and only got to 4 from home before it was decided to call it a day.

We’d taken 4/1 about an 11/4 shot, but that was scant consolation in the end and I strive for better today in the…

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7.00 Kempton:

Mike Channon has had 12 runners here at Kempton in the last 12 weeks and of the 10 of them sent off at odds of 10/1 or under, five have won in a form line reading 9112351118 with a two from three record this month alone. That 5/10 record has generated 20.8pts profit from 1pt level stakes.

Mike has just one runner here in the shape of Amahoro who was last seen running on well to win a Nottingham maiden quite comfortably by 2.5 lengths.

In the last three years, winners of Nottingham maidens have done very well next time out, winning 23 of 94 races (24.5% strike rate) for a net profit of 17.1pts (+18.2% ROI) from level stakes at all odds.

If we imposed a higher end odds cap of 12/1, the figures become 19/73 (26% SR) for 31.65pts (+43.3% ROI), whilst at a maximum price of 6/1 (more in line with SotD general selection), we have 17 winners from 59 (28.8% ROI) for 22.8pts (+38.6% ROI) profit.

There have been 8 such runners here at Kempton and if we discard the one runner at 16/1, we have a record reading 2112214, with all seven horses sent off between 6/4 and 6/1, producing three winners and three runners-up for 4.7pts profit from the win bets.

Amahoro will be ridden by William Twiston Davies today, who’ll be taking a useful 3lbs off what isn’t too onerous a handicap mark to start off with.

In the last 4 years, Mike Channon has employed the services of a 3lb claimer in handicap contests on 187 occasions, resulting in 26 winners (13.9% SR) and 67.6pts (+33% ROI) profit. Here at Kempton, that record is 3/13 for 22.5pts.

If we looked at those races where Mr Channon has put a 3lb claimer on board a sub-8/1 runner, we see a 19.4% strike rate, courtesy of 19/98 record which has generated some 36pts profit at an ROI of 36.8%, whilst the record here at Kempton is 2/6 for 9.96pts.

I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Amahoro at 100/30 BOG with Bet365 today, but SportingBet are going 7/2 non-BOG if you prefer. As always, the best way to see what’s on offer is to…

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