Stat of the Day, 6th February 2014
Well, I thought we’d landed ourselves a nice 100/30 winner yesterday, as Amahoro travelled really well and responded inside the last furlong when asked for an effort.
As he drew alongside the leader and 6/4 favourite, Pool House, it looked as though it was a very well-timed run, but our selection just couldn’t get his nose in front, the fav found a little bit more and we went down by a neck
It was a far better run for our money than we’ve had of late, but still no winner: something I aim to rectify in today’s…
Where I’ve just backed Disco Dave at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor for this 9.5 furlong, Class 6 contest.
Disco Dave ran here just five days ago over a mile and a half and despite running very creditably, he faded late on and could only manage third place, but was only beaten by three lengths and should be better suited by this drop in trip.
Horses running in A/W handicaps within five days of a second place finish last time out when by beaten by three lengths or less have he following record when turned back out at either the same trip or a shorter distance: 19 winners from 72 rides when priced between 9/4 & 8/1 since the start of 2011. That’s a 26.4% strike rate yielding 40.6pts profit from level stakes, an ROI of 56.4%.
Disco Dave has been running very consistently of late with a recent record of 21243 and never beaten by more than three lengths (the 4th was over C&D, beaten by a length off today’s mark in a better race) and gets to run off the same mark as his last two close defeats.
That mark of 60, however, makes him top weight here, but to me that’s not a cause for concern, because…
…top weighted males in Class 6 or 7 A/W handicaps over trips of a mile to a mile and a half have a really good record, especially when they finished second, third or fourth last time out.
Since the start of 2009, they have won 60 races from 213 (28.2% SR) for 131.35pts (+61.7% ROI) profit with the stats from Wolverhampton standing at 24/76 (31.6% SR) for 69.6pts (+91.5% ROI) profit.
This suggests a 1pt win bet on Disco Dave at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor could be a good thing today, whilst the same price is on offer at PP, so why not…