Stat of the Day, 7th February 2014
I was reasonably confident of hauling myself off the cold list with Disco Dave yesterday and when he hit the front with 2 furlongs to run, I thought we were set for a nice 3/1 winner (SP 11/4), but he was headed around the furlong pole and quickly ran out of steam, shuffling back to 6th place, a good 6.5 lengths shy of the winner.
I seem to be struggling to find my own backside with both hands at the moment, so in a bid to revitalise things, I’m taking a tilt at a bit of a longshot in the…
Which is a 6 furlongs, Class 6 Handicap sprint for horses aged 4 and above. Our selection today, Consistant, has indeed been running consistently of late, finally getting his head in front over course, distance and class 11 days ago after close defeats in 4th, 5th and 4th places respectively.
He was never more than a length behind the winner of those three races, all of which were over today’s trip with the latter two over course and distance. He’s raised 6lbs for that recent win here, making him top weight before allowances, but the very useful Eoin Walsh is able to take 5lbs off, meaning an effective rise of just a pound, which is by no means insurmountable.
In fact, top rated (OR) males running in UK, All-Weather, Class 6 or 7, handicaps over trips of 5 to 12 furlongs on the back of a win last time out have won 37 of 109 times. This 33.9% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 49.4pts in the process, a return of 45.3% above stakes invested in the last three years.
At Wolverhampton, those figures are 14 wins from 46 runners (30.4% SR) for 19.7pts (+42.8% ROI) profit: slightly lower than the overall A/W average, but still very palatable.
We can then add the above to the fact that horses who won at this track last time out (within 45 days) over today’s trip or up to a furlong longer after three previous successive unplaced runs have won 21 out of 72 Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton since 2009.
21 from 72 is a more than healthy 29.2% strike rate and the generated profits of 108.2pts are very good indeed and represent some 150.3% of stakes. These horses are also profitable on an E/W basis with resultant profits of 112.4pts for those with a safety-first approach.
As I said earlier, we get the benefit of Eoin Walsh’s 5lb claim and he’s one of the more talented claimers around at the moment. He’s riding well, as six wins and three places from twenty-four rides in the last month for 8.5pts will testify. He’s also worth following here at Wolverhampton when on horses priced below 16/1, where his record is 13 winners from 45 (28.9% SR) for 35.4pts (+78.6% ROI) profits: 13/42 for 38.4pts using his claim.
Consistant is a triple course and distance winner and running off a mark effectively just a pound higher than his win last time out, when also conceding weight all round makes him a viable option for at least a place today. He is currently trading at double digit odds, so the play today is a cautious one with a 0.5pts E/W bet at 12/1 BOG.
I’ve chosen to use Boylesports today, but the price is available in three or four other places, so I suggest that you…