Stat of the Day, 9th February 2014
Alaivan attracted some support yesterday and was backed in from the 18/1 I mentioned in yesterday’s piece down to an SP of just 10/1. And despite looking well out of it two from home, he rallied and stayed on to the finish, but couldn’t quite get into the frame for us.
We’d taken the offer of 5 places from Bet365 and as Sod’s Law dictates, our horse was 6th and the other Jonjo runner I mentioned was a winner!
It’s too wet on the turf for me today, so it’s back to the A/W and a selection more in line with normal (whatever that is!) SotD selection procedure in the…
Which is a 7 furlong Class 5 handicap, with nine runners now expected to go to post.
1. James Tate’s horses on the A/W in Class 4 to 6 races since 2010 reads 19 wins from 107 races when priced between 7/2 and 16/1, a reasonable strike rate of 17.8%, yielding level stakes profits of 70.44pts, giving backers a 65.8% return on their investments. Of those runners, the record here at Southwell is 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 40.14pts (+182.5% ROI): 3/5 for 27.92pts with horses of American origin.
2. USA- bred horses tend to go well here at Southwell, especially those not too exposed at the track. Since 2010 again, those USA-bred runners with no more than two previous outings at the track have won 132 from 568 races: a strike rate of 23.2% giving rise to profits of 311.7pts (+54.9% ROI). From those 568 runners, the vast majority (511 of them) were aged from 3 to 7 and 116 of those 511 (22.7% SR) were winners, yielding excellent profits of 309.8pts (+60.6% ROI).
3. Males aged 3 to 5 with that same USA suffix are 51/203 (25.1% SR) for 145.5pts (+71.7% ROI) over trips of 7 furlongs or shorter in that same 2010-14 timeframe.
All of which lead me to a 1pt win bet on Ruwaiyan at 9/2 BOG with Coral, for other bookies prices…
Click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Southwell