Stat of the Day, 10th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2014

When I started writing yesterday’s piece, Ruwaiyan was a 5/1 shot (a price I got on at), by the time I’d finished about ten minutes later, he was 9/2 at best and as low as 7/2 in places. He continued to attract money all day, before eventually going off as 5/2 favourite.

And that’s where the good luck story ends. Yes, we smashed the SP price, but the horse was terribly disappointing  and failed to beat a single rival home.

Plumpton is off, Catterick is very wet, so the default option is today’s last race, the…

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5.30 Wolverhampton:

Where Shaun Harris’ filly Medam is best priced at 7/2 BOG to complete a 22-day, Class 6, 7 furlong hat-trick.

Shaun’s runners are in good nick at present with 6 winners from 19 in the last month alone. This recent 31.6% strike rate has produced 17.53pts profit to boot, an ROI of some 92.3%. And despite a run of just one winner in seven here at Wolverhampton in that time for a three point loss, his record here at this track is worth noting.

In the last two years he has had 63 horses running at over 2/1 SP in Wolverhampton handicaps, netting him 10 winners (15.9% SR) for 41.32pts (+65.6% ROI) profit, but in the interests of transparency, I should say there were a couple of larger priced winners amongst those, so it might be more relevant to filter those stats slightly.

From the 63 runners above:
At 14/1 or under: 9/46 ( 19.6% SR) for 27.4pts (+59.5% ROI) profit
At 8/1 or under: 8/33 (24.2% SR) for 23.2pts (+70.2% ROI) profit

So, we can see that it’s profitable at all odds to back Shaun’s runners in Wolverhampton handicaps, he just doesn’t send enough here! And in true SotD style, Medam is his only runner today.

Medam comes here on the back of wins at this level and over today’s trip at Kempton 22 days and then a C&D win here a week later. She was raised 8lbs between thos two wins, although today’s jockey Neil Farley was able to account for 3lbs of the rise with his claim, but if anything she was more impressive second time around.

She won by a good length and a half last time out and was staying on strongly and getting further away with each stride and an additional 2lb penalty for that run is more than fair and shouldn’t be enough to stop her, if she runs to that level again.

She has won three from ten handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 6f and 7f (1165633731) and looks well set to extend that sequence and Neil Farley takes the ride for the fourth (consecutive) time, having a third and two wins to his name when riding this filly.

There’s not a great deal of depth on offer here, so I’m happy enough with a 1pt win bet on Medam at 7/2 BOG today. This price is widely available and I’ve placed mine with Stan James. To see your preferred bookie’s odds, simply…

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