Double Dutch, 11th February 2014
Our first race went nowhere near the plan yesterday, as firstly Real Milan was withdrawn shortly before the start, which then reduced our 3/1 about Union Jack D’ycy down to 21/10: all of which became irrelevant though, when he got rid of Aidan Coleman at the 9th fence.
The non-runner did, however mean we got a shot at redemption in the form of two singles in race two, where our 5/2 first pick Filament of Gold was backed in to 11/8 favouritism and duly obliged by a length and a half to keep our daily loss down to a palatable 0.25pts.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Union Jack D’ycy: UR at 7/4 (adv 21/10 after R4)
Real Milan: non-runner (adv 13/8)
Filament of Gold: won at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Secret Suspect: u/p at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
146 winning selections from 514 = 28.40%
49 winning bets in 137 days = 35.77%
P/L : +26.80pts (+9.93% ROI)
It wasn’t great racing and today looks little better, if truth be told. But all races have a winner, we just need two of the day’s 14 victors!
Outrageous Request comes here seeking a hat-trick over today’s 2 mile trip, after he followed up a nine-length win over hurdles at Leicester with an A/w success at Lingfield last time. He has won on the flat and is a very versatile sort. He has raced here twice before, finishing second on both occasions, so we know he’ll handle the surface too. He’s only up 3lbs for his latest win and looks well set to go in again at a best price of 7/2 BOG with Stan James.
The main challenge could well come from Arr Kid, who represents the Eaves/Dalgleish partnership. This jockey/trainer combo has a 7/19 record here at Southwell and have to respected for that alone.He has been costly to follow as a nine-race maiden, but he has been consistent in defeat, finishing either second or third in six of those races. He has looked like he needed further than the 9 to 14 furlongs attempted so far and the step up to 2 miles might just be the trick here.
This is also Arr Kid‘s first visit to Southwell, where his USA heritage might make him the latest in a long line of USA-bred winners at this track. The bookies seem to think so, as they’ve installed him as the 5/2 favourite here.
Too Cool To Fool is a three-times hurdle winner (twice here at Ayr) who has the best record on soft/heavy ground of all seven runners in this contest. He has finished third and then second in his two chase starts to date (both here at Ayr on heavy ground) and he gets to run off a mark some 22lbs lower than his hurdles rating. It’s very interesting to see him dropped so far in trip today, but maybe there’s something we don’t know!
He will win races over fences and this doesn’t look very strong at all, so perhaps the shortness of the race won’t trouble him unduly. If they don’t go off too quick for him, he has every chance of landing this at a generally available 7/2 BOG.
The two horses priced shorter than him haven’t won a race between them from 31 starts and despite having lost 21 races to date, the favourite Hot grove Boy is raised another 2lbs for this one, which could well leave the door open for a first win for Mumgos Debut, who shaped far better in his two efforts over fences than he did in six below par and unplaced runs over hurdles.
He has finished second on both of his outings over the larger obstacles and if my first pick finds the minimum trip too sharp for his liking, this could be the ideal opportunity for Mumgos Debut to break his duck at 3/1 BOG (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Arr Kid / Mumgos Debut @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : BetFred/Totesport)
Arr Kid / Too Cool To Fool @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Outrageous Request / Mumgos Debut @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Outrageous Request / Too Cool To Fool @ 18.5/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Stan James)