Stat of the Day, 11th February 2014
Brrrrrr! It’s very chilly here on the cold list, but I thought Medam was going to warm us up yesterday at a nice price after drifting from our advised 7/2 out to a juicy 5/1 SP.
She travelled really well and hit the front with a furlong to go and tried to put the race to bed. Unfortunately she ended up with faster finishers on either side of her and as is usually the case in those “sandwiched” runs, she was unable to repel either challenger.
The end result was a very creditable third place, but for us it’s another -1 in the P/L column. Something I hope to rectify in today’s…
Of all the trainers represented at Ayr today, Philip Kirby has the best recent record. Overall, his record in handicap contests here on the West Coast is a healthy 6/24 (25% SR) for 16.93pts profit (+70.5% ROI).
If we disregard the six runners priced above 12/1 (all beaten too), we arrive at a 6/18 record (33.33% SR) for 22.93pts (+127.4% SR). Of those 18 runners since 2009, the figures from the last two years alone are five winners from 11 runners priced between 5/2 and 12/1.
That’s an excellent strike rate of almost 45.5% which has generated level stakes profits of 26.86pts, an ROI of some 244.2% and with two of the six losers also making the frame, Each/Way backers have been rewarded with a 63.6% strike rate and 27.8pts profit.
The E/W ROI of 126.3% is understandably lower than the win only bets, but it’s still more than acceptable. My only gripe about Mr Kirby’s runners at Ayr is that there aren’t enough of them! 😀
That said, he is double-handed today and whilst Hail The Brave looks to have a decent chance at 100/30 BOG of landing the bumper at 5.00, that is a tough race to call and it isn’t a handicap, which leaves us with Ancient Times, who interests me for other reasons apart from his handler’s excellent record at this track.
1. If we look at the Race Analysis on the geegeez interactive racecards, we can see that he has won twice and been placed once in five starts on heavy ground (55121) and he has two wins and a place here at Ayr (2811). He’ll get the trip, as he has three wins and three second places from eight attempts at 2.5 miles (28112281) and his record over C&D reads 2811, all on heavy ground like today!
2. Not only has he won his last two races here over Course and Distance, one of those was this very same race last year, when he romped home by 22 lengths.
3. He won here last time out (C&D, heavy ground like today), but that was the first time he made the frame in seven previous attempts and now that he is turned back out just a fortnight after his return to form, makes him one of those “back to form” horses I like to back.
Since 1st January 2013, 193 horses have run in handicap hurdle races priced between 2/1 and 14/1 within 30 days of a win Last Time Out, when that win came after a run of at least three unplaced efforts.
41 of the 193 horses have gone on to secure back-to-back victories for a strike rate of 21.24% generating level stakes profits of 74.1pts at betfair SP (the closest approximation I have to BOG odds). This represents a 38.4% return on all stakes invested.
E/W backers would have seen 41 winners and 54 other placers from 192 bets, giving a place strike rate of 49.5% and profits of 111.9pts (+29.14% ROI), making this approach an attractive alternative for those seeking a higher strike rate.
Ancient Times won’t have it all his own way, but he does have the benefit of being reunited with jockey Adam Nicol (claiming 3lbs here) who was on board for last year’s victory in this race.
He’s considered generally less likely to win the race this time round, but he’s more than capable of springing a surprise at a nice price. He’s actually trading a good couple of points longer than I expected, which opens the door for an E/W bet today and with this in mind, I’m going to take some of the 10/1 BOG on offer in several places.
My play today is 0.5pts E/W on Ancient Times at 10/1 BOG with SkyBet, but the same price is available at BetVictor and BetInternet, so I suggest you…
Click here for the latest betting on the 2.55 Ayr: