Stat of the Day, 12th February 2014
Ancient Times stayed on well to finish second and maintain Philip Kirby’s excellent record at Ayr. Our horse was unable to reassert himself on the eventual seven lengths winner, but did enough to put clear daylight (19l back to the 3rd placed horse) between himself and the pack.
We got on at 10/1 and despite our selection being well backed to 6/1, our E/W bet returned a half point profit, which is always better than nothing!
Hopefully this is the start of a good run which I now seek to continue in the…
Daniel Loughnane has a good record here at Lingfield and since 2008, 15 of his 62 runners here have been returned as winners. This 24.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 22.07pts, a return equivalent to 35.6% of stakes. All 15 winners came from the 50 runners priced below 12/1, for a 30% strike rate and 34.07pts (+68.1% ROI) profits.
I realise that six years is a long way to go back, but this trainer has maintained that fine record throughout and over the last two years, the record reads 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 23.64pts profit. That’s a very healthy 60.6% return on investments.
Daniel generally turns to Shane Kelly to ride his horses, but on occasions uses the services of Stephen Craine to good effect. Stephen is currently three from six on the Loughnane horses, including a win last time around with Stanlow.
Stephen rides both of Daniel’s runners at this track today and it’s fair to say that his best chance will come on our pick, Yourinthewill. Shannon Haven might well have a squeak of a place chance at 12/1 in the 1.30 race, but the following contest represents the team’s greater opportunity here today.
Yourinthewill won a couple of times on the A/W last year and had looked in decent nick during a couple of runner-up finishes at both Wolverhampton and here over course and distance two starts ago. He was beaten by 2.5 lengths that day by the reopposing Paddys Saltante, but he looks well set to reverse the placings with a 7lb pull in the weights to help his cause.
Incidentally, Daniel Loughnane saddled up ten winners from the nineteen entrants in sellers last year and is already 2/7 this year, so he’s definitely a trainer to watch at this level of the sport.
Exclusive Waters is likely to be a fairly short favourite here, giving us a bit of juice in our 1pt win bet on Yourinthewill. I’m taking some of the 3/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, but you’re more than welcome to wait for the other firms to price it up and then…
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