Stat of the Day, 13th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2014

Yesterday I highlighted Daniel Loughnane as a trainer to follow at Lingfield, especially when Stephen Craine was in the saddle. They teamed up with two runners yesterday, priced at 14/1 and 9/2, resulting in a dead heat win and a third place finish.

Unfortunately, the results didn’t go the way the odds might have suggested and although our 3/1 drifter Yourinthewill ran creditably and stayed on to finish strongly, it was he who came home 3rd at 9/2.

I know (from emails received) a few of you, myself included, backed Shannon Haven as an E/W pick and were rewarded handsomely when he got up to join the leader in the line, but it’s officially a point dropped for SotD.

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It wasn’t a bad day as such, but I’m looking for better from today’s…

4.55 Kelso:

Which, at first glance, is a pretty inauspicious-looking mares’ bumper. However, whenever I see the word bumper, I immediately think of trainer Stuart Crawford, who excels in this sphere.

His yard is in good form at the moment, highlighted by his dozen winners from 36 runners in the last two months and his record in bumpers is excellent.

Since the start of 2009, he has saddled up 49 runners in bumpers priced at 10/1 or below with 20 of the 49 (40.8% SR) returning victorious, netting followers some 66.7pts (+136.1% ROI) profits for their loyalty and with a total of 35 runners (71.4% SR) making the frame, this yard is also profitable to follow on an E/W basis, recording profits of just under 85pts from a more cautious approach.

Stuart’s brother Steven tends to take most of the rides and his record on these runners is 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 53pts (+151.5% ROI). The yard has notched up 9 wins and 5 placers from just 18 bumper runners since the turn of 2013 yielding level stakes profits of over 40pts, so they’re clearly in form, further reinforced by a 3 in 4 record in mares only contests in the last two years.

Stuart Crawford sends Knocklayde Express out for her debut today and he also has a good record with his debutants. In the last two years alone he has managed to get nine of his 31 runners to win first time out. I appreciate it’s a fairly small sample size, but he’s not the busiest of yards to be fair. This is still an impressive 29% strike rate which has generated a very handsome 43.5pts (+140.4% ROI) profit to date.

All nine winners came from the 26 bumper debuts (34.6% SR for 48.5pts) and all nine were amongst the 24 ridden by brother Steven.

Steven rides Knocklayde Express for Stuart today and as an unraced mare, there’s little to tell about her, but she shouldn’t lack for ground speed being sired by former Coronation Cup and St Leger winner Scorpion and her mare is closely related to some NH winners at 2m to 2m2f.

It’s always a bit of a blind faith punt with newcomers, but the yard’s record with first timers can’t be ignored and it’s the unknown element that gives us a decent price here, where I’ve just backed Knocklayde Express at 9/2 BOG with SkyBet. You can get that same price at BetVictor, but for all the other firms’ prices, you’ll need to…

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.55 Kelso:

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Here is today’s racecard!

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