Stat of the Day, 14th February 2014
It was nice to be on the right side of a tight finish for a change, after we seem to have lost out in a few of late!
We’d got Knocklayde Express at a handsome 9/2 and she actually traded as low as 15/8 during the day, before finally setting off as the 3/1 favourite. She was the beneficiary of a driving finish from Steven Crawford , as he just got her up on the line to win by a head to maintain the trainer’s excellent record in bumpers.
Mind you, I couldn’t tell who’d won until the result was announced, as the TV camera angle at Kelso has to be amongst the worst in the world of racing!
Low-grade evening A/W action today in the…
A poor-looking Class 7 handicap over the extended 5f here at Dunstall Park has been weakened further by the withdrawal of overnight favourite Speedyfix, leaving the way open for Louis Vee, currently available at 9/2 BOG with PP.
He is a lightly raced sort for his age: just 10 runs to date for this six year old who produced a career best performance to win off a lowly mark of 45 here at this track eight days ago. He’s obviously rated higher than that today, as he’ll be carrying top weight off 51 in this race, after other runners’ jockey claims are taken into account.
He made all that day to land a 33/1 success by a length and a quarter and it is hoped that the drop back in trip from 6f will help to compensate for the hike in weights. One thing you can be sure of is that in-form jockey (10 wins from 42 for for over 49pts profit in the last fortnight) Chris Catlin will be doing his utmost to clock up another winner, after winning aboard this horse at the first time of asking last time out.
1. Horses running at a price between 5/2 and 8/1 at the same or up 1 class as a last time out win at 25/1 or bigger have won 84 times from 416 attempts in the last 4 years. This 20.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 117.8pts in the process, an ROI of 28.3%. Of those 416 runners, the record at today’s trip reads 13 wins from 34 (38.2% SR) for 58pts (+170.7% ROI) profit.
2. Meanwhile, in the same four year timeframe, top weighted males priced at 6/1 or shorter in Classes 5 to 7 handicaps have a very good record when running on the back of a win or narrow (less than a length) defeat last time out within the last 10 days. There have been 235 such runners in the last four years and 81 (34.5% SR) of them have been winners, which in turn has generated profits of some 54.8pts, a return equivalent to 23.3% of stakes invested.
From those 235 runners, LTO winners accounted for 66 of the wins from 186 runners, that’s a slightly increased strike rate of 35.5% which in turn has a seen profits of 40.5pts at an ROI of 21.8%.
Louis Vee has an excellent chance of scoring back to back victories and could well be overpriced on my 1pt win bet at 9/2 BOG with PP. The other prices available can be seen if you just…
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