Double Dutch, 15th February 2014
We got back to winning ways yesterday with an evening all-weather 7.63/1 success from either side of the Irish Sea.
The Firm was backed in from our advised 2/1 to win at 6/4, but it wasn’t the Holy Roman Empire offspring chasing him home that we’d selected! 5/1 shot Shabra Emperor was the runner-up here, whilst She’s Not Simple was actually the last to finish, but we’d already bagged the winner!
And then, a 6lb rise couldn’t stop Alumina notching her hat trick at Wolverhampton. Once she got the inside line off the final bend and stayed close to the rail, there was only one winner and a small 1/4pt drift was a welcome boost to our bottom line.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
The Firm: won at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
She’s Not Simple: last of 6 at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Alumina: won at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Amahoro: u/p at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
151 winning selections from 530 = 28.49%
51 winning bets in 141 days = 36.17%
P/L : +31.00pts (+11.15% ROI)
A tough looking day today, but I’m more than hopeful of grabbing another couple of winners from these:
I really like the 15/8 favourite Aurore D’Estruval to follow up her facile win at Wetherby from a fortnight ago. Admittedly, she had little to beat that day, after the Geegeez horse Slipper Satin departed at the first hurdle. Slipper Satin re-opposes today, but is more of an E/W punt in my opinion. Aurore D’Estruval carries a penalty for that win, but up against the boys, she still receives a handsome chunk of weight, which could well make all the difference in tough conditions.
Trainer John Quinn’s having a decent season and you sense that with just the one runner anywhere today, he’s not intending leaving here empty handed! That said, they’ll be queuing up to deny him and the one that interests me most of the challengers is Handiwork, who I prefer to Hawk High. There’s probably not much between them, but as AP McCoy rode Hawk High last time out (won by a neck at Warwick) and has elected to ride Handiwork, that’s quite telling.
Handiwork’s recent form actually sets the standard here and he has been a revelation since switching to hurdling after a pretty ordinary flat campaign. This four year old was placed just twice from 8 attempts at Class 5 & 6 level on the flat, but is 112 over hurdles and ran a big race to finish 2nd at Ascot last time out. Further expected improvement allied to the jockey change makes him a big threat at 4/1 BOG.
The bookies are finding it hard to separate Gevrey Chambertin and Many Clouds and so am I! Fortunately I can take them both here and I will.
Many Clouds is currently a slight favourite, but can be backed at 2/1 BOG with BetVictor and he has won 5 (placed a further 3 times) from his 12 starts to date, including a very good second place on a grade 3 hurdle lass than a year ago.
He has been impressive and progressive over the larger obstacles over the winter, winning twice from three attempts and second to Black Thunder at Haydock in November. This looks like a precursor to a shot at the RSA chase at Cheltenham and his experience over fences could be the decisive factor, as he takes on chase debutant Gevrey Chambertin, a very smart hurdler up to now. A winner of 5 from 8 races to date, including a Grade 3 hurdle at Haydock last time out. He gets the trip well and will love the underfoot conditions.
The only query is his ability over the larger fences here today, but he looks like a chaser and has shaped like one in the past and to me is a very credible and viable alternative at the 5/2 BOG on offer from Stan James.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Aurore D’Estruval / Many Clouds @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Aurore D’Estruval / Gevrey Chambertin @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Handiwork / Many Clouds @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Handiwork / Gevrey Chambertin @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : Bet365, Boylesports & PP)