Double Dutch, 17th February 2014
Winners at 2/1 and 5/2 might not make the most profitables double around at just 19/2, but it was still better than the 8/1 returned at SP and it maintained our recent fine form, keeping our profits above 10% of stakes invested.
Inis Meain stayed on strongly to take the lead late on and hold on for a half length victory, whilst Monbeg Theatre had the race under control from a long way out and was able to ease down towards the line.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Inis Meain: won at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Annie Oakley: u/p at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Monbeg Theatre: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Orby’s Man: 4th at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
153 winning selections from 538 = 28.44%
52 winning bets in 143 days = 36.36%
P/L : +32.25pts (+11.44% ROI)
The poor weather is making it harder each day at present and all we have to pick from today is an A/W jumpers bumpers card and a low grade (bar one Class 2 contest) A/W meeting at Wolverhampton. Largely uninspiring stuff, but the show must go on:
I don’t particularly like these A/W bumper races, but they all have a winner and this looks a straight match between my pick Dolatulo and the backup horse Any Given Day.
Any Given Day is a former World Hurdle runner and achieved a top rating of 159 over hurdles and has scored 4 wins and a second place from 5 efforts at this level. Only 6 go to post for this today and has tended to go well in smaller fields in the past, winning twice and placing four times from 10 efforts. He’s 1/1 on the A/W and 1/1 at today’s minimum ttrip and if past class is anything to go by, he stands a real chance at 9/4 BOG (generally available)
The winner, however, is more likely to be Stan James’ 5/4 favourite Dolatulo, who has made the frame in 13 of 18 starts to date, winning five of them. This includes a course and distance win here in a similar contest last spring and that could well prove decisive. Including that run, his recent string of results reads 11122213 making him hard to either beat or oppose. He also copes well in small fields with a record of 21121 from five runs.
Both Attain and Kindlelight Storm won last time out, both carry fairly large penalties for those victories, yet both sit at the bottom of the weights and the top of the market and I’d expect them to fill the first two places here today.
Attain‘s 8lb penalty for finally breaking his duck at the 24th attempt might look harsh on paper, but he had been running consistently well without winning on the All-Weather and did win by six lengths going away last time out here at Wolverhampton nine days ago.
Five top-four finishes from six efforts immediately prior to his win showed that he was knocking on the door. Trainer Julia Fielden is tackling the weight penalty head on by using 5lb claimer Shelley Birkett today, but the rider is no stranger to the horse either, having steered him to six top-4 places in seven rides since September. A bold follow-up bid is expected at 3/1 BOG (gen).
Stan James also go 3/1 BOG about my marginal preference Kindlelight Storm, who has also been running consistently of late, culminating in a course and distance win last time out, just 17 days ago. He travelled best of all that day and effectively had the race sewn up with over a furlong to go. He wasn’t stretched nor driven to a finish and still prevailed by the best part of two lengths. A 6lb rise actually looks fair based on that performance and any repeat of that effort should actually be enough in what looks a fairly poor race.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Dolatulo / Kindlelight Storm @ 8/1 (5/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Dolatulo / Attain @ 7.80/1 (6/5 & 3/1 : bet365, betVictor & Boylesports)
Any Given Day / Kindlelight Storm @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : PP)
Any Given Day / Attain @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : PP)